It’s Friday Night Lights in College Football tonight with a pair of primetime matchups to get down on. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
7 p.m. ET: UNLV at Kansas (-9.5, 57.5)
UNLV (2-0) is coming off a resounding 72-14 win over Utah Tech, easily covering as 41.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kansas (1-1) just fell to Illinois 23-17, losing outright as 5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Kansas listed as a 7-point home favorite. Early money pounded Kansas laying the chalk, steaming the Jayhawks up from -7 to -9.5. However, we’re starting to see some buy-low buyback on UNLV as an inflated road dog, as some shops are juicing up UNLV +9.5 to -115, signaling a possible high water mark and point of resistance. Some shops are even down to UNLV +9. The public is split with roughly 50% of spread bets on both sides. However, UNLV is only receiving 48% of spread bets but 69% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy.
The total opened at 57.5 and is still sitting at 57.5. However, a closer look at the line history shows that the total ticked up to as high as 59 throughout the week before falling back down to 57.5. Essentially, we are seeing some sneaky sharp liability on the over, as the total has only stayed the same or risen and never fallen below the opening number. The over is receiving 67% of bets and 78% of dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action. UNLV is averaging 50 PPG on offense while Kansas is averaging 32.5 PPG. These two teams met in a Bowl Game last season and Kansas won 49-36.
8 p.m. WR: Arizona at Kansas State (-7, 60.5)
Arizona (2-0, ranked 20th) just brushed aside Northern Arizona 22-10 last week but failed to cover as 37.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Kansas State (2-0, ranked 14th) just took down Tulane 34-27 but failed to cover as 9-point road favorites.
This line opened with Kansas State listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public sees two ranked teams with a big touchdown spread and is leaning toward Arizona plus the points. With 58% of spread bets and 54% of spread dollars taking Arizona, we’ve seen the line fall from +7.5 to +7 in favor of the road dog. It will be interesting to see which direction this line moves next, either down to 6.5 or back up to 7.5. Kansas State would qualify as a “fade the trendy dog” contrarian favorite, receiving only 42% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 113-75 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2016. Friday night home favorites of 7-points or more are 91-74 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2015.
Wiseguys are expecting a high-scoring game and have hammered the over, raising the total from 56.5 to 60.5. Some shops are juicing up the over 60.5 to -115, signaling a possible further rise up to 61. The over is receiving 68% of bets and 78% of dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy. Arizona is averaging 41.5 PPG on offense. Kansas State is averaging 37.5. When the total rises at least three points on Friday night, the over is 68-50 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2005.
