Tuley’s Takes – Week 5 College Football Best Bets and Predictions:
I had a great time last weekend as I left the Tuley’s Takes home office in North Las Vegas and went to my college newspaper reunion at Northern Illinois University in DeKalb, IL – and, to make this a business trip, mixed in some college football. Unfortunately, my Huskies were in a letdown spot after their big upset of No. 5 Notre Dame and were upset 23-20 in OT by Buffalo in their MAC opener as 14-point home favorites (at least my “dog or pass” followers know I didn’t lose money on the game).
It was also disappointing following the bets I did make as we went 1-2 ATS with our Best Bets in these weekly columns as I won with James Madison upsetting North Carolina 70-50 as a 10.5-point road underdog but losing (barely) with UTEP in a 27-17 loss at Colorado State as a 9-point road dog and Baylor in a 38-31 OT loss at Colorado.
I felt we were right there with all our plays but dropped to 7-7 ATS overall on the season, losing the vig. The silver lining is I originally listed six plays I liked, but those plays also went 1-2, so at least I felt I narrowed down to the strongest plays and saved some money.
The other good thing is something I’ve written many times over the years that it’s hard to win on both college football Saturdays and pro football Sundays, so I felt validated when my NFL plays went 4-1 ATS.
Of course, I realize that’s no consolation for those who prefer betting college football and come here for live underdogs, so hopefully we have four for this Saturday.
Buffalo +5.5 at UConn
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (CBSSN)
There’s a danger in overrating a team you’ve seen in person, but I believe I’m being objective here. Buffalo came into DeKalb and outplayed NIU, which earned a No. 25 ranking with the Notre Dame upset and was elevated to No. 23 when it was flattered (horse racing term) when the Irish routed Purdue 66-7 in the interim week. So, while certainly concerned Buffalo could suffer a similar major-upset hangover like NIU did, the Bulls should be able to do it again on the road. UConn isn’t all that good and shouldn’t be favored by this many points. This could again come down to a field goal (which, even in a loss, would give us the cover), and Buffalo has a good one in sophomore Upton Bellenfant, who reminds me of myself when I used to kick FGs in that stadium after practices – just kidding, he’s way better. I wish I could bet Buffalo to win by exactly 3 points, but I’ll settle for +185 on the moneyline.
Week 5 College Football Best Bet: Buffalo +5.5
Louisiana-Lafayette +3.5 at Wake Forest
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ACC)
I hate to type it (because it sounds like I’m disrespecting oddsmakers and often getting burned, LOL), but it looks like the wrong team is favored, and we’re definitely calling for the outright upset here. Wake Forest beat NC A&T 45-13 in its season opener, but the Demon Deacons have allowed 71 points in their last two games – a narrow 31-30 loss to Virginia and a blowout 40-6 defeat to Mississippi. Meanwhile, Louisiana has scored 40, 34 and 33 points in their three games, so I don’t see how ULL doesn’t light up the scoreboard again. And while the Ragin’ Cajuns’ 20.3 points allowed per game is against lesser competition, success breeds success, and I’m sure Wake Forest will be able to match ULL score for score.
Week 5 College Football Best Bet: Louisiana-Lafayette +3.5
Louisiana-Monroe +7 at Troy
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
Let’s stick with the University of Louisiana hyphenated system. Regular readers will recall two weeks ago when we took UL-Monroe +13 at UAB and the Warhawks not only covered but won outright 32-6 in a laugher. They obviously were overmatched last week in a 51-3 loss vs. now-No. 1 ranked Texas, but there’s no shame in that and, in fact, helps us get a full TD here. This is just as much of a play against Troy, which is 1-3, and I don’t see why they’re favored by 7 with only a 34-12 over Florida A&M.
Week 5 College Football Best Bet: Louisiana-Monroe +7
New Mexico State +9 vs. New Mexico
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
As a “dog or pass” handicapper, I don’t like laying points. Granted, even though I don’t eat chalk, I fully admit there are as many good favorites as bad ones. We just prefer to look for the vulnerable faves to bet against. But I’ll never understand why chalk bettors still feel OK laying points with bad teams. This is a roundabout way of saying there’s no way that New Mexico (0-4) should be laying more than a TD against anyone (well, maybe a bad FCS program), and add to the fact that they’re asked to do it on the road and against an in-state rival. New Mexico State (1-3) is no powerhouse either but should have success against a New Mexico defense that is allowing a whopping 44.8 points per game. The Lobos might be the better team and get the win, but we’ll count on the Aggies being able to stay within one score.
Week 5 College Football Best Bet: New Mexico State +9
