Week 0 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

College Football

Week 0 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Adam Burke

August 23, 2024

Week 0 College Football Power Ratings:

Well, folks. We’ve made it!

Meaningful college football games will be played this week, as we have seven games in total and four that feature FBS teams. Obviously Florida State vs. Georgia Tech will draw the most attention and the biggest billing, but every data point matters in terms of putting together college football power ratings and lines on the games.

Before I share my lines for Week 0 and some additional thoughts, here are the links to my College Football Betting Guide articles on how I create my power ratings and how I came up with my home-field advantage values.

Using my power ratings and HFA, I come up with my own lines on every FBS vs. FBS game. Unlike some of my much smarter colleagues in the industry, I don’t power-rate the FCS teams, so I won’t have lines on those. However, I may find some of those lines really interesting and suggest taking a deeper look at them, much like I did in my Week 0 Odds Report article.

So, I’ll be doing this weekly power ratings article every Sunday night/Monday morning. Next week, I’ll outline my process from a week-to-week standpoint in deeper detail – how I adjust teams, how I evaluate results, and how I try to keep a level head with outlier performances.

This is basically meant to serve as an intro to what you can expect from me during the season. Starting with Week 1, and really starting with Week 2, I’ll list all of my power ratings adjustments by team and shed some light on my rationale behind the biggest ups and downs of the week. I’ll also share my lines for every game on the schedule.

Even though there are only six FBS teams in action, I’ll share my ratings for all of the teams.

Here are my Week 0 College Football Power Ratings:

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	95	3
2	Ohio State	93	3.5
3	Oregon	91.5	3.5
4	Texas	90	3.5
5	Alabama	89	3.5
6	Mississippi	86	3.5
7	Notre Dame	86	3.5
8	LSU	85	3.5
9	Florida State	84.5	2
10	Penn State	84.5	3.5
11	Michigan	83	3.5
12	Oklahoma	83	3.5
13	Missouri	82	2
14	Tennessee	82	3.5
15	Clemson	81.5	3
16	Texas A&M	81.5	3
17	Kansas State	79.5	3.5
18	Utah	79.5	3.5
19	Miami (Florida)	79	2
20	USC	78	2
21	Arizona	77	2
22	Oklahoma State	77	3.5
23	Iowa State	76.5	2
24	SMU	76.5	3.5
25	Auburn	76	2
26	Kansas	76	2
27	Kentucky	76	2.5
28	Louisville	76	3.5
29	Virginia Tech	75.5	2
30	TCU	75	2.5
31	Washington	75	2
32	Iowa	74.5	2.5
33	Florida	74	2
34	North Carolina State	74	3.5
35	Wisconsin	74	2
36	South Carolina	73	2.5
37	UCF	73	3
38	West Virginia	73	3
39	Nebraska	72.5	2
40	Texas Tech	72	2.5
41	Boise State	71.5	2.5
42	Georgia Tech	71	1
43	Maryland	71	2
44	Memphis	71	2
45	North Carolina	71	2.5
46	UCLA	71	2
47	Colorado	70	2
48	Arkansas	69	2
49	California	69	2
50	Rutgers	69	2
51	Baylor	68.5	2
52	Liberty	68.5	3
53	Tulane	68	2
54	Appalachian State	67.5	2.5
55	Minnesota	66.5	2
56	Northwestern	66.5	1.5
57	Syracuse	66.5	2.5
58	Cincinnati	66	2
59	Oregon State	66	3.5
60	South Florida	66	2
61	UTSA	66	3.5
62	Washington State	66	2.5
63	Illinois	65.5	2
64	Pittsburgh	65.5	2
65	Virginia	65.5	2
66	BYU	65	2
67	Duke	65	3
68	Fresno State	65	2.5
69	Indiana	65	1.5
70	Michigan State	65	2.5
71	Mississippi State	65	2
72	Purdue	65	2
73	James Madison	64	3.5
74	Texas State	64	2
75	UNLV	64	2
76	Wake Forest	64	2.5
77	Arizona State	63.5	2
78	Houston	63.5	2
79	Stanford	63.5	1
80	Boston College	63	1.5
81	Wyoming	62.5	2.5
82	Louisiana-Lafayette	61	3
83	Arkansas State	61	2
84	Miami (Ohio)	61	3
85	Air Force	60	2.5
86	Troy	60	2.5
87	Western Kentucky	60	2.5
88	Bowling Green	59	2
89	Jacksonville State	59	2.5
90	Rice	59	2
91	Toledo	59	2.5
92	Coastal Carolina	58	2.5
93	Colorado State	58	1
94	San Diego State	58	2
95	South Alabama	58	2.5
96	Georgia Southern	57.5	2
97	Northern Illinois	57.5	1.5
98	East Carolina	57	2
99	Marshall	57	2
100	North Texas	57	2
101	UAB	57	2.5
102	Vanderbilt	57	1
103	Army	56	2
104	Old Dominion	56	2
105	San Jose State	56	2
106	Navy	55	2
107	Western Michigan	55	2
108	Hawai’i	54.5	2
109	Ohio	54.5	2
110	Florida Atlantic	54	2
111	Utah State	54	2
112	Central Michigan	53.5	2
113	Tulsa	53	1
114	Georgia State	52.5	2
115	Southern Mississippi	52.5	2
116	Charlotte	51	1
117	Ball State	50.5	2
118	Middle Tennessee	50	2
119	New Mexico State	50	2.5
120	Connecticut	49	2
121	Nevada	49	1.5
122	Sam Houston State	49	2
123	Buffalo	48.5	1
124	Eastern Michigan	48	2
125	Louisiana Tech	48	2
126	Louisiana-Monroe	47	2
127	Massachusetts	47	1
128	Akron	46	1
129	UTEP	46	2
130	Florida International	45.5	1
131	Kent State	45	2
132	New Mexico	45	1
133	Temple	44	2
134	Kennesaw State	43	2

Basically, take the difference between two teams and add home-field advantage to create a line on the game. So, if Kennesaw State (43) played at Temple (44), the difference between the two teams is one point and home-field advantage for Temple is worth two points, so I’d have Temple -3.

Week 0 Lines:

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
8/24	Florida State	Georgia Tech (N-Dublin)	+13.5
	SMU	Nevada	+26

Week 0 Thoughts:

Florida State (-11) vs. Georgia Tech: My line is 13.5, which is where this one predominantly opened over the summer. Florida State has been rebuilt on both sides of the ball and won’t have OC Alex Atkins here, as he’s suspended for the first three games. Still, as much as I like Georgia Tech with returning QB Haynes King, the opener in Dublin is a tough sell for me.

SMU (-27) at Nevada: Even though my number is 26 and close to the market line, I lean slightly towards the Wolf Pack. I think it’s a big ask for SMU to be super efficient on both sides of the ball in a game played at 4,500 feet of elevation. Not that I think Nevada will be any good. This would be a “hey, it’s Week 0!” kind of play. I’m still not sure about it.

But, I will have stronger bets and opinions as the season goes along, so keep it locked in right here at VSiN!