Week 15 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

College Football

Week 15 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Adam Burke

December 1, 2024

Week 15 College Football Power Ratings:

Conference championship weekend has arrived. That means we only have nine games on the slate, but they are nine very important games. Five have big College Football Playoff implications and the other ones will determine the champions of the Sun Belt, MAC, Conference USA, and the AAC.

I’ve updated my Power Ratings going into this week, including updates on teams whose seasons are over. I try to use my Power Ratings as a guide for evaluating teams for the next season, but that may be a futile endeavor with the transfer portal and all of the roster turnover. Plus, we have a ton of coaching openings already.

Nevertheless, the ratings are updated and I’ll be able to put together some early bowl game numbers, but, as we know, the dynamics of those games will change with opt-outs and coaches moving on to different programs.

Here are my Week 15 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Oregon	90	3.5
2	Ohio State	88.5	3.5
3	Texas	88.5	3.5
4	Georgia	85.5	3
5	Notre Dame	85.5	3.5
6	Alabama	84	3.5
7	Penn State	84	3.5
8	Mississippi	83.5	3.5
9	Indiana	83	1.5
10	Tennessee	82	3.5
11	SMU	81	3.5
12	South Carolina	81	2.5
13	Clemson	80	3
14	Miami (Florida)	79	2
15	Texas A&M	79	3
16	Colorado	78.5	2
17	Kansas	78	2
18	Louisville	78	3.5
19	Florida	77.5	2
20	Baylor	77	2
21	Arizona State	76.5	2
22	Auburn	76.5	2
23	Iowa State	76	2
24	LSU	76	3.5
25	USC	75.5	2
26	Michigan	75.5	3.5
27	Virginia Tech	74.5	2
28	Kansas State	74	3.5
29	TCU	73.5	2.5
30	Tulane	73.5	2
31	Boise State	73	2.5
32	BYU	73	2
33	Georgia Tech	73	1
34	Washington	73	2
35	UCF	72.5	3
36	Minnesota	72	2
37	Oklahoma	72	3.5
38	Texas Tech	71.5	2.5
39	Vanderbilt	71.5	1
40	UNLV	71	2
41	Missouri	70.5	2
42	Kentucky	70	2.5
43	Arkansas	69.5	2
44	California	69.5	2
45	Cincinnati	68.5	2
46	Iowa	68.5	2.5
47	Nebraska	68.5	2
48	Duke	68	3
49	Texas State	68	2
50	Virginia	68	2
51	Army	67.5	2
52	Illinois	67.5	2
53	Syracuse	67.5	2.5
54	West Virginia	67.5	3
55	Boston College	67	1.5
56	North Carolina State	67	3.5
57	Utah	66.5	3.5
58	Washington State	66.5	2.5
59	UCLA	66	2
60	Wisconsin	66	2
61	North Carolina	65.5	2.5
62	Rutgers	65.5	2
63	Memphis	65	2
64	UTSA	65	3.5
65	Houston	64	2
66	James Madison	64	3.5
67	Louisiana-Lafayette	64	3
68	Marshall	64	2
69	Pittsburgh	64	2
70	Maryland	63.5	2
71	South Alabama	63.5	2.5
72	Arizona	63	2
73	Navy	63	2
74	Oklahoma State	63	3.5
75	San Jose State	62	2
76	Wake Forest	62	2.5
77	Mississippi State	61.5	2
78	Old Dominion	61.5	2
79	South Florida	61	2
80	Jacksonville State	60	2.5
81	Stanford	60	1
82	East Carolina	59.5	2
83	Fresno State	59.5	2.5
84	Michigan State	59.5	2.5
85	North Texas	59.5	2
86	Northwestern	59	1.5
87	Ohio	59	2
88	Air Force	58	2.5
89	Bowling Green	58	2
90	Miami (Ohio)	58	3
91	Northern Illinois	58	1.5
92	Connecticut	57.5	2
93	Florida State	57.5	2
94	Georgia Southern	57.5	2
95	Liberty	57.5	3
96	Appalachian State	57	2.5
97	Colorado State	57	1
98	New Mexico	56.5	1
99	Oregon State	56.5	3.5
100	Western Kentucky	56	2.5
101	Sam Houston State	55.5	2
102	Troy	55.5	2.5
103	Arkansas State	55	2
104	Toledo	55	2.5
105	Rice	54.5	2
106	Coastal Carolina	54	2.5
107	Nevada	53.5	1.5
108	Louisiana-Monroe	53	2
109	Utah State	53	2
110	Hawai’i	52.5	2
111	Buffalo	52	1
112	Georgia State	52	2
113	Louisiana Tech	52	2
114	San Diego State	52	2
115	Charlotte	51.5	1
116	Purdue	51.5	2
117	Akron	50	1
118	UAB	50	2.5
119	Western Michigan	50	2
120	Wyoming	49.5	2.5
121	Florida International	48.5	1
122	Eastern Michigan	48	2
123	Massachusetts	46.5	1
124	Florida Atlantic	45.5	2
125	Temple	45	2
126	Central Michigan	44.5	2
127	UTEP	43.5	2
128	Ball State	42.5	2
129	New Mexico State	42	2.5
130	Southern Mississippi	40	2
131	Middle Tennessee	39.5	2
132	Kennesaw State	38	2
133	Tulsa	37.5	1
134	Kent State	28.5	2

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: Buffalo +2, Akron +2.5, Memphis +2, Minnesota +1.5, Oregon State +1.5, San Jose State +1.5, Nebraska +1, Georgia Tech +2.5, East Carolina +1.5, UTSA +1.5, South Carolina +1, Boston College +2, NC State +1, Florida +2.5, Central Michigan +1.5, North Texas +1.5, Tennessee +1.5, UMass +2, Syracuse +1.5, Marshall +2, UAB +3.5, Wake Forest +1.5, FIU +1.5, Arizona State +3.5, BYU +1.5, Air Force +2.5, Baylor +3.5, Louisville +3.5, Missouri +1, Louisiana +1.5, UTEP +2, USC +1.5, Texas +2, Michigan +3

Down: Kent State -3, Toledo -2.5, Tulane -2, Bowling Green -1.5, Wisconsin -2.5, Mississippi -1, Stanford -1.5, Iowa -5.5, Georgia -1.5, Colorado State -1, Navy -1.5, Army -1.5, Pitt -4, North Carolina -1, Florida State -4, Northern Illinois -1.5, Temple -3, UConn -1.5, Miami (FL) -2.5, Charlotte -2.5, App State -1, Duke -1.5, Ohio State -2.5, Michigan State -2, Middle Tennessee -2, UCLA -2, Tulsa -3.5, SMU -1, Kentucky -2, New Mexico State -2, Washington State -3, Notre Dame -1.5, New Mexico -2.5

Here are my Week 15 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
12/6	Tulane	Army	+4
	Western Kentucky	Jacksonville State	-6.5
	UNLV	Boise State	-4.5

12/7	Iowa State	Arizona State (N – Arlington)	-0.5
	Ohio	Miami (OH) (N – Detroit)	+1
	Georgia	Texas (N – Atlanta)	-3
	Marshall	Louisiana	-3
	Clemson	SMU (N – Charlotte)	-1
	Penn State	Oregon (N – Indy)	-6

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Jacksonville State -4 (-6.5) vs. Western Kentucky: I’ve thought that Jacksonville State was the class of the conference for a while now. They had nothing to play for last week and still almost beat Western Kentucky. Tyler Huff is a great dual-threat QB, despite an ugly passing effort last week. The Gamecocks ran for 229 yards and 5.3 yards per carry in a game that didn’t matter to them.

Ohio +2.5 (-1) vs. Miami (OH): I understand why Miami is favored here. They won 30-20 in the first game and it really wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. Miami was -3.5 at home in that one. Admittedly, I’ve had a hard time rating all the MAC teams this season.

Oregon -3.5 (-6) vs. Penn State: Oregon has been the No. 1 team for me for a while and I think they have a tremendous coaching advantage here. This one is my favorite play of the week.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.