Today we have a loaded midweek slate of 14 MLB games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
1:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-135, 7.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Phillies (5-6) won Monday’s opener 5-3 in extra innings, cashing as -105 road dogs. Then the Cardinals (6-6) bounced back with a 3-0 win last night as +120 home dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Phillies start righty Aaron Nola (1-1, 5.40 ERA) and the Cardinals counter with fellow righty Lance Lynn (0-0. 4.15 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -125 road favorite and St. Louis a +105 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Phillies laying short chalk, steaming Philadelphia up from -125 to -135. The Phillies are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars, signaling Pro and Joe support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Philadelphia has the better bats (hitting .235 vs .218) and betting pitching (team ERA 4.00 vs 4.16). Road favorites are 35-18 (66%) this season. The Phillies also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team based on the favorite designation. Paul Goldschmidt is not in the starting lineup for St. Louis (day off).
3:07 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays (-115, 8)
The Blue Jays (6-6) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-2 as -120 home favorites and then winning again last night 5-3 as -110 home favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Mariners (4-8) start righty Logan Gilbert (0-0, 3.55 ERA) and the Blue Jays send out lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 2.79 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick’em, with both sides listed at -105 odds. We’ve seen Toronto creep up from -105 to -115, signaling pro money backing the home favorite Jays to complete the sweep. Toronto is receiving roughly 60% of moneyline bets, indicating modest public support. The Jays have the slightly better bats, hitting .216 vs .211 and far better on base percentage (.313 vs .278). Toronto is 2-0 at home while Seattle is 1-4 on the road. The Jays are also 5-2 in day games while the Mariners are 0-5. Sharps are also leaning over here, as the total is 8 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 8.5. The over is receiving 54% of bets but 82% of money, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The forecast calls for low 60s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to center with the roof open at Rogers Centre.
6:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (-145, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Padres (6-8) took the opener 9-8 as -135 home favorites. Then the Cubs (7-4) bounced back with a 5-1 win yesterday, cashing as +120 road dogs. In tonight’s series finale, the Cubs hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 11.74 ERA) and the Padres rebuttal with fellow righty Dylan Cease (0-1, 3.38 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -135 home favorite and Chicago a +125 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on San Diego, steaming the Padres up from -135 to -145. This movement is notable because the public is split down the middle with 50% of moneyline bets on both sides. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So we know, based on the ten-cent steam move, that the sharper pro wagers have sided with the Padres. Hendricks has gotten knocked around in both of his first two starts, allowing 5 runs in 4 innings against the Dodgers and giving up 5 runs in 3.2 innings against the Rangers. Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 8 with the over juiced to -115. The over is receiving 70% of bets and 82% of money, signaling both public and sharp support for a higher scoring game. Chicago is 7-4 to the over this season.
