The NBA regular season is here! We here at the Vegas Stats & Information Network are ready for the grind!
In order to prepare for the league as whole, make sure you check out our NBA Betting Guide. It has previews and win total analysis for all 30 teams, and it has best bets from myself, Zach Cohen and Kelley Bydlon. Plus, some great articles, such as strategies on live-betting the NBA and how to attack the Finals futures market.
Also, keep tabs on Zach Cohen, who will be handicapping this league with me daily.
Today, we’ve got a great double-header. Boston opens its title defense with a great matchup against the new-look New York Knicks, which now have Karl-Anthony Towns. In the nightcap, Towns’ former team – the Minnesota Timberwolves – will face the Los Angeles Lakers in JJ Redick’s coaching debut.
The numbers have been up since August, but not much has changed over that time. Let’s dive into the double-header and get some action for tonight’s opener.
Those who read the article can track the bets here.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, October 22nd
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers head coach JJ Redick said he wanted this team to take more 3-point attempts this season in order to unlock the offense. It seems Los Angeles is buying in on that philosophy. In the preseason, the Lakers took 38.5 attempts from deep per game. Compare that to the 31.4 per contest last season and you see a real change. Los Angeles can shoot too. It finished eighth in 3-point percentage (37.7%) despite the low volume. The percentage might dip based on larger volume, but this team should be a good shooting team. It also ties into my bets tonight.
First, let’s start with LeBron James. As his career has gone along, James has been much more willing to shoot from distance. As a Laker he’s averaged 6.4 attempts per game compared to the 4.1 per game prior. Under Redick’s new offense, he should be more than willing to shoot from deep. That showed in preseason games against Phoenix and Milwaukee where he took a combined seven attempts in just 32 minutes of action across both games. The market is about -140 for him to go over 1.5 made 3-point attempts tonight, and I believe that to be a fair price.
Second, this game total itself seems somewhat low by my measure. It opened at 224.5 in the summer at SuperBook. Since then, it has dropped like a rock. Los Angeles’ new strategy from beyond the arc should obviously be taken into account. That should open the floor for James and Anthony Davis to work inside. Minnesota’s bench is also very formidable, as Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo coming off the bench gives the Timberwolves a very high-powered second unit.
Best Bets: LeBron James OVER 1.5 3P (-140) | Timberwolves/Lakers OVER 218.5
Added Plays
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
Give me the Boston Celtics here. The lack of depth on this bench for the Knicks is concerning. They have no one behind Karl-Anthony Towns, and the backup guard rotation is extremely thin. There is also an issue of continuity, something the Celtics do not have to worry about here. Yes, Kristaps Porzingis is not playing, but Boston has enough depth to overcome that, especially against a team that will lack size once Towns leaves the floor.
Best Bet: Celtics (-5.5)
Likes & Leans
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
I agree with the market moving in Boston’s direction here. The lack of continuity on the Knicks’ side and the injuries to the bench – both Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa are out – are a very big deal. But we should point out the struggles of Mikal Bridges here.
Bridges is attempting to change his jumpshot this season, and the results have been poor. He shot 10.5% on 4.8 3-point attempts per game. The shot itself looks very odd.
The betting market has been all over this. At DraftKings his 3-point prop is 2.5 shaded to the under at -180 and that is one of the cheaper prices out there. FanDuel offers alternate 3-point markets and bettors can find under 1.5 at +154 over there. If the struggles are legitimate this could be an angle to shop for at the start of the season until Bridges figures out what is wrong.
