It was only one result, but I think it’s time we have a conversation about the Denver Nuggets.
Denver looked poor on both ends of the floor last night, but it was the offense that was most concerning. The Nuggets averaged just 0.926 points per possession, shot 20.6% from deep and scored just 87 points. In the minutes without Jokic they had an offensive rating of 72.7 according to Cleaning The Glass.
Again, it is only one game against one of the best teams in the league, but it is concerning because all of Denver’s projected weaknesses were on display in a very big way. Shooting was going to be a concern. The non-Jokic minutes were going to be a concern. We saw all of that in a single game.
Under on the Nuggets’ win total of 51.5 was one of my favorite win totals placed this offseason, and seeing that performance only made me more confident. FanDuel still has 50.5 as an adjusted win total, and I believe that is worth a play.
Let’s get to the best bets, likes and leans for Friday. Remember, you can always track every play in this column and the results right here.
NBA Best Bets for Friday, October 25th
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
The last time Indiana was on this floor it was closing out New York in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Knicks will be foaming at the mouth for an opportunity to get a modicum of revenge for that embarrassment in May.
Indiana did not look great in its comeback win and cover over Detroit on Wednesday. It needed a complete collapse from Detroit in that fourth quarter in order to secure a victory. New York is much better than it showed on Tuesday against Boston. It has the capability on defense to defend the Pacers at every position. The Knicks also won’t be burdened by an opponent who can hit them with a torrential downpour of 3-point makes.
It is a good situation for New York and the angle of “playoff revenge” – teams playing the team that eliminated them the previous season – has been strong in recent seasons. Let’s give the Knicks a shot to bounce back tonight on a number that looks pretty short.
Best Bet: Knicks (-4.5)
Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets
In the third quarter on Wednesday ESPN’s win probability metrics gave Houston a 95.6% chance to beat Charlotte. When the clock expired in regulation, the Hornets had a 110-105 victory. The Rockets have to be smarting from an awful defensive fourth quarter in which they allowed 1.409 points per possession.
The defensive effort should be better against Memphis. The Grizzlies put up 1.212 points per possession and shot 38.6% from deep against the Jazz on Wednesday, but I have my questions as to how good this offense will be. Desmond Bane and Santi Aldama combined to go 9-of-20 from deep in that game. The Rockets will provide a stiffer test along the perimeter for this team, which I still believe will be a poor shooting squad.
We can also expect that Jaren Jackson Jr. will not play tonight. This should be a great matchup for Alperen Sengun who can test Zach Edey all night long along the perimeter. Sengun had 25 points, 18 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 steals in the loss to Charlotte. This matchup should mean he has another big one in store.
Best Bet: Rockets (-3)
Likes & Leans
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz
Golden State got home on Wednesday night with a blowout win over Portland on the road. This Warriors team is extremely undervalued at the beginning of the season and I want to continue to play on that angle. This was going to be a best bet for me today as well, but the injury report has Steph Curry, Draymond Green and DeAnthony Melton all listed as questionable. The current line of -2.5 screams value, but I can’t take the risk until I know this team will be healthy by the time tip-off comes around. Playing that game burned me too many times last season. I think this is playable up to -4.5 should we get a clean bill of health from Golden State.
Lean: Warriors (-2.5)
