Home Golf Best bets for the PGA Tour Fortinet Championship

    Best bets for the PGA Tour Fortinet Championship

    0
     

    Fortinet Championship

    With the PGA Tour reverting to a calendar-year schedule beginning in January, the tournaments that follow the Tour Championship have taken on a new significance. The FedExCup Fall was created and begins this week at the Fortinet Championship.

    The Ryder Cup is in two weeks and while all of Team Europe is in England this week for the DP World Tour’s BMW PGA Championship, only two of Team USA is represented in this week’s Fortinet Championship, although all of Team USA was in Rome at Marco Simone this past week getting a look at the course. Max Homa (+750) is the back-to-back defending champion of this event. He is joined near the top of the odds board by Ryder Cup teammate Justin Thomas (14-1).

    Sahith Theegala (20-1) finished sixth here last year and is still knocking on the door for his first PGA Tour victory with four top-10s in 2023 after two runners-up in 2022. Cam Davis (25-1) finished his 2022-23 PGA Tour season with three top-10 finishes in his last four events. Stephan Jaeger (31-1) has been consistent in 2023, missing only two cuts in 22 events and posting seven top-20s but just one top-10.

    Beau Hossler (35-1) is also looking for his maiden tour victory. Eric Cole (35-1) is a PGA Tour Rookie of the Year candidate and made the FedExCup Top 50 courtesy of a runner-up at the Honda Classic and two other top-6 finishes.

    Aside from Homa, other former Fortinet winners include 2020 champion Stewart Cink (90-1), 2019 champion Cameron Champ (66-1), 2018 champ Kevin Tway (300-1), 2014 winner Sang-moon Bae (600-1) and 2013 winner Jimmy Walker (175-1).

    The Event

    The Fortinet Championship began in 2007 as the Fry’s Electronics Open. Cybersecurity company Fortinet, based in nearby Sunnyvale, Calif., took over in 2021 from retail grocer Safeway, Inc. (2016-2020) as the title sponsor. It also marks the beginning of FedExCup Fall. Below is an explanation of how the new fall format works:

    Tournaments in the FedExCup Fall offer winners the same benefits as regular-season events — including a two-year exemption on the PGA Tour, 500 FedExCup points and spots in The Players, The Sentry and those major championships that invite PGA Tour winners.

    But the FedExCup Fall also is when top-125 eligibility, which provides exempt status into full-field events and a spot in The Players, is finalized for the following season.

    At the conclusion of the FedExCup Playoffs, players ranked 51st and beyond in the FedExCup will continue to compete for points in the fall. They will begin the fall with all points earned in the regular season and the first FedExCup Playoffs event, the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

    Additionally, the top 10 players on the FedExCup Points List at the conclusion of the FedExCup Fall who are not yet eligible for the signature events will get into the two signature events following the season-opening The Sentry. This allows for trending players to emerge from the FedExCup Fall and test their skills against the game’s best.

    Nos. 51-70 in the FedExCup at the start of the fall have already clinched their top-125 eligibility for the following year but are competing for spots in the first two signature events following The Sentry.

    Nos. 71 and beyond can earn one of the 10 spots available in those signature events but they also are competing to finish in the top 125 of the FedExCup standings at the conclusion of the fall.

    At the end of the FedExCup Fall, those who rank from 126-150 on the final FedExCup Fall Points List will have conditional status for the 2024 PGA Tour Season.

    All players outside the top 125 can improve or regain tour status via PGA Tour Q-School presented by Korn Ferry.

    Players in the top 50 of the FedExCup after the Tour Championship are guaranteed top-125 eligibility and their spots in all signature events for the following season, but they can continue to play FedExCup Fall events to pursue trophies, play in some of their favorite events and earn valuable perks like Official World Golf Ranking points.

    The Field

    Tyson Alexander

    Ryan Armour

    Arjun Atwal

    Aaron Baddeley

    Sangmoon Bae

    Ricky Barnes

    Jacob Bergeron

    Christiaan Bezuidenhout

    Akshay Bhatia

    Fred Biondi

    Zac Blair

    Devon Bling

    Cyril Bouniol

    Scott Brown

    Wesley Bryan

    Jonathan Byrd

    Greg Chalmers

    Cameron Champ

    Kevin Chappell

    Henry Chung

    Stewart Cink

    Eric Cole

    Trevor Cone

    Austin Cook

    Ben Crane

    MJ Daffue

    Joel Dahmen

    Cam Davis

    Morgan Deneen

    Zecheng Dou

    Jason Dufner

    Tyler Duncan

    Nico Echavarria

    Austin Eckroat

    Harrison Endycott

    Derek Ernst

    Dylan Frittelli

    Tommy Gainey

    Brice Garnett

    Brian Gay

    Ryan Gerard

    Doug Ghim

    Michael Gligic

    Will Gordon

    Tano Goya

    Brent Grant

    Cody Gribble

    Lanto Griffin

    Chesson Hadley

    James Hahn

    Paul Haley

    Harry Hall

    Nick Hardy

    Scott Harrington

    Blake Hathcoat

    Lucas Herbert

    Jim Herman

    Kramer Hickok

    Garrick Higgo

    Harry Higgs

    Charley Hoffman

    J.B. Holmes

    Max Homa

    Beau Hossler

    Mark Hubbard

    Mackenzie Hughes

    Stephan Jaeger

    Zach Johnson

    Tom Johnson

    Sung Kang

    S.H. Kim

    Kevin Kisner

    Patton Kizzire

    Russell Knox

    Satoshi Kodaira

    Kelly Kraft

    Matt Kuchar

    Peter Kuest

    Martin Laird

    Derek Lamely

    Andrew Landry

    Nate Lashley

    Hank Lebioda

    K.H. Lee

    David Lipsky

    Luke List

    Adam Long

    Justin Lower

    Peter Malnati

    Ben Martin

    Brandon Matthews

    William McGirt

    Max McGreevy

    Troy Merritt

    Taylor Montgomery

    Ryan Moore

    Matt NeSmith

    S.Y. Noh

    Alex Noren

    Henrik Norlander

    Andrew Novak

    Augusto Núñez

    Sean O’Hair

    Geoff Ogilvy

    Ryan Palmer

    C.T. Pan

    Taylor Pendrith

    Cameron Percy

    Scott Piercy

    D.A. Points

    Ted Potter, Jr.

    Andrew Putnam

    Chad Ramey

    Chez Reavie

    Doc Redman

    Kevin Roy

    Sam Ryder

    Matti Schmid

    Matthias Schwab

    Robby Shelton

    Chase Sienkiewicz

    Greyson Sigg

    Webb Simpson

    Austin Smotherman

    J.J. Spaun

    Hayden Springer

    Kevin Stadler

    Scott Stallings

    Kyle Stanley

    Sam Stevens

    Robert Streb

    Kevin Streelman

    Chris Stroud

    Brian Stuard

    Justin Suh

    Preston Summerhays

    Callum Tarren

    Ben Taylor

    Sahith Theegala

    Justin Thomas

    Davis Thompson

    Brendon Todd

    D.J. Trahan

    Martin Trainer

    Kevin Tway

    Erik van Rooyen

    Jimmy Walker

    Nick Watney

    Trevor Werbylo

    Richy Werenski

    Kyle Westmoreland

    Vince Whaley

    Dylan Wu

    Carson Young

    Kevin Yu

    Carl Yuan

    The Course

    The Silverado Country Club’s North Course in Napa, Calif., has hosted since 2014. The course’s first major redesign occurred in 1966 by Robert Trent Jones Jr. and then again in 2011 by Johnny Miller. It plays a par-72 of 7,123 yards. The course has played at about a stroke under par on average over the last five years (16th easiest on tour).

    The Bermuda fairways with Poa Annua and Ryegrass are narrower (second narrowest on tour) than tour average (25.5 yards wide on average). Miller wanted to reconfigure the bunkering on this course to create a bit of an "Augusta" type feel. A strong, balanced game off the tee (both distance and accuracy) is required here because the three-inch Bluegrass/Ryegrass Rough can be tricky.

    Although there is some rolling terrain and a couple of holes with elevation changes, it is predominately a flat course. With only two holes with water hazards in play (seventh fewest) and only 50 bunkers (fifth fewest), there just aren’t that many ways for golfers to score bogey or worse.

    Players will be hitting into Bentgrass/Poa Annua (11.5 stimpmeter) greens that are elevated with shaved run-offs and can be bumpy. The greens also average 6,200 square feet. Eight years is not a huge sample size, but West Coast players have fared relatively well on these Bent/Poa greens with Max Homa, Cameron Champ and Brendan Steele, all California guys, winning here recently.

    Comparable courses include Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands, TPC San Antonio, TPC Deere Run, TPC Twin Cities, TPC Scottsdale.

    Fortinet Championship Recent History

    2022: Max Homa (-16/272); 10-1

    2021: Max Homa (-19/269); 60-1

    2020: Stewart Cink (-21/267); 200-1

    2019: Cameron Champ (-17/271); 150-1

    2018: Kevin Tway (-14/274); 66-1*

    2017: Brendan Steele (-15/273); 33-1

    2016: Brendan Steele (-18/270); 50-1

    2015: Emiliano Grillo (-15/273); 50-1**

    2014: Sang-moon Bae (-15/273); 150-1

    Playoff win over Ryan Moore and Brandt Snedeker – *

    Playoff win over Kevin Na – **

    Trends and Angles

    — Every Fortinet Championship winner at Silverado, with the exception of Homa in 2021 (42nd), has ranked seventh or better in Scrambling during their respective winning weeks. (2022: Homa third; 2020: Cink second; 2019: Champ first; 2018: Tway first; 2017: Steele seventh; 2016: Steele fifth; 2015: Grillo fifth; 2014: Bae fourth).

    — The Fortinet Championship winner has been rated in the top 8 or better for Driving Accuracy during their respective winning weeks.

    Statistical Analysis

    Last year, Silverado ranked as the 10th toughest to gain strokes on approach on the PGA Tour.

    Strokes Gained Approach (Last 50 rounds)

    Previous article NFL: Week 2 model projections from Jonathan Von Tobel
    Next article VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 3
    Wes Reynolds writes a weekly golf column and contributes NFL and college football best bet write-ups throughout the season. He is part of the co-host rotation for Live Bet Saturday (1-7 p.m. ET) and Live Bet Sunday (1-8 p.m. ET) and the Long Shots golf podcast. He has a Masters in Athletic Administration and Sport Management from Indiana University and previously worked in sales and marketing for the Indiana Pacers, Indiana U., and the Indiana Firebirds (AFL).