Fair Grounds Best Bets
All eyes in the horse racing world will be focused on Fair Grounds on Saturday! They have a fantastic 14-race card. The culmination will be the first 50-point Kentucky Derby prep, The Risen Star, which I’ll cover later. The card overall has four graded stakes and six stakes overall! Now, for my Fair Grounds Best Bets:
The Risen Star, Fair Grounds, Race #14
The Risen Star drew a full field of 12 and is competitive from top to bottom. The favorite will be #11 Track Phantom, one of the crop’s most consistent horses. The morning line price of 7/2 is not too short to bet, but he’s one of the many speed horses in this race and drew the 11 post. He will most likely have to sit off the pace to win, and I do not like betting horses who must show a new style to win.
I’m going to put #8 Catching Freedom on top. He’s got a great closing kick which should work nicely today. He has improved in each of his starts, including a very good-looking win last time out at Oaklawn Park in the Smarty Jones. Saez jumps aboard for Brad Cox. When the two team up, they win at a 36% rate.
Right to his inside is #7 Hall of Fame, who sold for a whopping $1,400,000 and lived up to the purchase price last time out, winning by 10 lengths over this track last time out. He has early speed but didn’t need the lead to win. He should be the one to catch when they hit the quarter pole.
#3 Honor Marie will make his seasonal debut after closing his two-year-old season with a win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. His style sets up here with a late run, but the layoff is a concern.
#6 Real Men Violin ran second in that same race with Honor Marie. He’s improved every race on the dirt and, with another step forward, is dangerous again today.
One of the favorites in the future pools, #4 Sierra Leone, is running as well. He ran very well last time out, is the only horse who has hit the board at today’s 1 1/8-mile distance and sold for $2,300,000. All that said, I am surprised that one of the Ortiz brothers did not show up to ride in this spot, and I do not like backing Chad Brown at a shorter price on the dirt.
Picks: 8-7-3-6
Fair Grounds Best Bets:
$50 Win – #8
$5 Tri – 7,8 / 3,6,7,8 / 3,6,7,8
Spot plays:
Fair Grounds Race #8: $25 Exacta 8 / 9
Fair Grounds Race #9: $5 Win #6
Fair Grounds Race #13: $50 Win #1
