When it comes to NHL betting, the right strategy can make all the difference. Hockey, with its fast-paced nature and unpredictable outcomes, offers plenty of betting opportunities — but only if you know where to find the edges. From what types of bets are available to analyzing advanced stats or leveraging market inefficiencies, here’s everything you need to know to improve your NHL betting game. Also, make sure you look into becoming a VSiN Pro subscriber. VSiN NHL analyst Jonathan Davis does a great job of handicapping games on a nightly basis, and our analytics guru Steve Makinen makes sure there’s always actionable trends and data for bettors on the website — including his VSiN NHL Power Ratings and tremendous game-by-game matchup pages. We also talk about hockey regularly on our live VSiN programming.
How to bet on the NHL
Before placing your bets, it’s important to understand the different types of wagers available in NHL betting:
- Moneyline bets: The simplest form of NHL betting, where you pick which team will win the game outright. Odds are set based on each team’s perceived strength.
- Puck line bets: Similar to point spreads in other sports, the puck line is usually set at -1.5 for favorites and +1.5 for underdogs. The favorite must win by two or more goals, while the underdog can lose by one goal and still cover. Occasionally, you’ll see bigger puck lines in outrageously lopsided matchups.
- Totals (Over/Under): Wagering on the total number of goals scored in a game. The sportsbook sets a line, and bettors pick whether the total will go Over or Under that number.
- Prop bets: These bets focus on specific player or team outcomes, such as a player’s goal total, number of shots or whether a game will go to overtime.
- Futures bets: Long-term bets on season outcomes, such as who will win the Stanley Cup, which player will win the MVP (Hart Trophy) or total team points over the course of the season.
- Live betting: Placing bets while the game is in progress, allowing bettors to react to momentum shifts and in-game performance.
Understanding advanced metrics
If you’re only looking at win-loss records and traditional player stats, you’re probably already behind. Savvy NHL bettors rely on advanced metrics like Corsi, Fenwick and expected goals (xG) to get a clearer picture of a team’s actual performance. Corsi and Fenwick measure shot attempts to gauge puck possession, while expected goals help determine if a team is overperforming or underperforming based on shot quality. Teams that consistently generate high xG but have poor results due to low shooting percentages are prime candidates for a betting bounce-back.
The importance of goaltending
No position in hockey influences betting outcomes quite like goaltending. A hot goalie can single-handedly steal games, while a struggling netminder can sink even the best teams. Key indicators like save percentage (SV%) and goals saved above expected (GSAx) help separate elite goaltenders from those merely riding the highs and lows of short-term variance. Monitoring starting goalie confirmations and understanding a team’s defensive structure can help you stay ahead of sharp line movements. Monitoring social media (specifically X) helps here.
Spotting line value
One of the biggest mistakes casual bettors make is blindly betting on favorites. While elite teams might look like locks on paper, sportsbooks often overprice public teams, reducing your potential return. Instead, value often lies in underdogs that are analytically undervalued. Teams with strong possession numbers but unlucky goal differentials can be excellent buy-low opportunities. Betting against inflated lines on overhyped teams is a sharp bettor’s bread and butter.
Also, learning how to read line movement can be very valuable. Our VSiN DraftKings betting splits and Circa Sports betting splits pages can help you detect which sides public bettors like. Oftentimes, taking the opposite of that is a smart move, which is why sharp bettors tend to do that. There’s a reason the house always wins.
Don’t discount special teams
Power plays and penalty kills can be game-changers. Teams with elite special teams units hold a major edge in tightly contested matchups, and betting trends often fail to account for them properly. A team with a struggling penalty kill facing an opponent with a top-tier power play is at a clear disadvantage, making this a crucial factor in moneyline and Over/Under bets.
How important is home-ice advantage?
Home ice advantage in the NHL isn’t as strong as in other sports, but it still holds weight — especially in certain spots. Teams with high altitude advantages (like Colorado) or strong fan bases can get an extra edge. However, blindly betting home teams isn’t a winning strategy. Instead, look for situational advantages, such as teams returning home after a long road trip or opponents on the second night of a back-to-back.
Bankroll management
Even the sharpest bettors go through cold streaks, so bankroll management is crucial. Avoid chasing losses, and stay disciplined with your unit sizes. NHL betting is a marathon, not a sprint.
Conclusion
Success in NHL betting comes down to information, analysis and discipline. Understanding advanced stats, goaltending impact and market inefficiencies can give you the edge needed to stay profitable. Stay ahead of the curve and trust the data. In the end, cashin’ tickets is what it’s all about!
