Today the weekend begins with a loaded 17-game MLB slate, including a pair of doubleheaders. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
1:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at New York Mets (-165, 8.5)
The Mets (6-7) took Friday night’s Interleague series opener 6-1, taking care of business as -140 home favorites. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Royals (9-5) turn to righty Alec Marsh (1-0, 3.09 ERA) and the Mets counter with lefty Sean Manaea (1-0, 0.82 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -155 home favorite and Kansas City a +140 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on New York, driving the Mets up from -155 to -165. The Mets are receiving roughly 60% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move. Interleague favorites off a win, like the Mets here, are 13-8 (62%) this season and 236-144 (62%) since the start of last season. After starting the season 0-5, the Mets are 6-2 in their last eight games. Pros have also leaned under, as the total is 8.5 with several shops juicing up the under at -115. The under is receiving 46% of bets and 49% of dollars, a slight sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for low 50s with strong 15-20 MPH winds blowing left to right at Citi Field. Manaea has only given up one run in 11 innings pitched over his first two starts.
4:07 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (-140, 8) at Oakland Athletics
The Athletics (6-8) took last night’s Interleague Series opener 2-1 in extra innings, cashing as -130 home favorites. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Nationals (5-8) start lefty Mackenzie Gore (1-0, 4.09 ERA) and the Athletics turns to righty Joe Boyle (1-1, 8.22 ERA). This line opened with Washington listed as a -125 road favorite and Oakland a +110 home dog. Sharps have sided with the Nationals to bounce back, steaming Washington up from -125 to -140. The Nats are receiving 68% of moneyline bets and 79% of moneyline dollars, signaling both sharp and public support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Washington has the better bats, hitting .226 vs .197 for Oakland. The Nationals also have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Road favorites are 42-22 (66%) this season with a 15% ROI. Pros seem to be leaning toward another lower scoring game as well, as the total has dipped from 8.5 to 8. Washington has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game, with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team.
4:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-200, 8.5) at Miami Marlins
The Braves (8-4) cruised to an 8-1 win in last night’s series opener, easily cashing as -200 road favorites. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Braves hand the ball to lefty Chris Sale (1-0, 3.38 ERA) and the Marlins (2-12) counter with righty Max Meyer (1-0, 2.45 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -190 road favorite and Miami a +170 home dog. Pros aren’t scared off by the expensive price and have laid the chalk with the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -190 to -200. The Braves are receiving roughly 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling one-sided support from both sharps and the betting public. Atlanta has a massive edge at the plate, hitting .308 vs .203 for Miami. Atlanta has scored 81 runs compared to 48 for Miami. The Braves also have the better pitching staff (team ERA 4.67 vs 5.14). Road favorites are 42-22 (66%) this season with a 15% ROI. Atlanta is +21 in run differential. Miami is -37. Only the White Sox are worse (-39). Atlanta is -1.5 (-125) on the run-line.
