Home MLB Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday May 10

    Betting Splits and MLB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday May 10

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    Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Wednesday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

    You can also track the VSiN Betting Splits for every game. 

    In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Wednesday’s MLB slate…

     

    1:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-165, 8) at Milwaukee Brewers

    This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Brewers (20-16) won the opener 9-3, cashing as -115 home favorites. Then the Dodgers (22-15) bounced back with a 6-2 win on Tuesday, taking care of business as -120 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, Los Angeles starts lefty Clayton Kershaw (5-2, 2.53 ERA) and Milwaukee counters with fellow lefty Wade Miley (3-1, 2.31 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -150 road favorite and the Brewers a +125 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with Los Angeles, steaming the Dodgers up from -150 to -165. The Dodgers are receiving roughly 75% of bets and dollars, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support. Non-division road favorites are 86-55 (61%) this season. Non-division favorites off a win are 129-72 (64%). Los Angeles also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. 

     

    4:07 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-125, 9.5) at Los Angeles Angels

    The Angels (20-17) took the series opener 6-4, cashing as +110 home dogs. Then the Astros (18-18) bounced back with a 3-1 victory yesterday, winning as +120 road dogs. In this late afternoon rubber match, Houston taps righty Cristian Javier (2-1, 3.54 ERA) while Los Angeles trots out fellow righty Griffin Canning (2-0, 5.31 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed at -110 odds. Respected money has pounced on the Astros at the short price, steaming Houston up from -110 to -125. The Astros are receiving 66% of bets but 88% of money, a notable smart money discrepancy in their favor. Road favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who did not are 63-38 (62%) this season. Pros have also leaned over, raising the total from 9 to 9.5. The forecast calls for low 70s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to dead center. The over is 5-2 in the last seven Angels game. 

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    Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.