Game 3 New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction:

The Los Angeles Dodgers split their first two games at home against the New York Mets in the National League Championship Series and they look to pitcher Walker Buehler to have a big start on Wednesday in Queens to regain home-field advantage.

Buehler has allowed at least three runs in 13 of his 17 starts this season, including the playoffs, compiling a 5.71 ERA with over 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. His road ERA is an inflated 6.88.

The Dodgers are banking on their powerful lineup to back Buehler. They averaged 5.2 runs per game this season, best among playoff teams, including a league-best 5.5 on the road during the regular season.

Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino hopes to keep rolling at Citi Field on Wednesday. He has a 2.96 ERA at home with just over 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, compared with 4.94 and 1.5 on the road. 

The Mets were eighth in the majors in runs per game at home during the regular season at 4.8 and have done much of their damage late, scoring 23 runs in their past seven games in the sixth inning or later.

The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 3.15 postseason ERA, but they have already had to use two bullpen games in this playoff run, and from July 1 until the end of the regular season, they ranked 15th with a 4.03 ERA.

Based on the way Severino has been pitching at home, coupled with Buehler’s struggles, the Mets will take a 2-1 lead in this series.

MLB Pick: Mets -105 Moneyline

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