Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction:
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets split the first two games in their best-of-five series in Philadelphia. The series moves to New York on Tuesday with starting pitcher Aaron Nola in a big spot for the Phillies.
Throughout his career, Nola has not been quite the same pitcher on the road as he has been at home. He has posted a 4.21 ERA with 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings on the road compared to a 3.21 ERA with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings at home. Nola also has allowed at least three runs in six of his nine road starts since the beginning of July.
Nola has a 3.57 ERA this season, with his 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings being his fewest since his rookie season in 2015 to go with 1.4 home runs per nine innings for a 3.94 fielding independent.
The Phillies back up Nola with a bullpen that was 23rd with a 4.49 ERA from July 1 until the end of the regular season. In this series, the bullpen has allowed 12 earned runs in six innings.
For the Mets, Sean Manaea gets the start after posting a 3.47 ERA with 9.1 strikeouts to 3.1 walks per nine innings during the regular season. He has allowed two runs in five innings in his first start this postseason against the Milwaukee Brewers.
While the New York Mets have had their own difficulties in the bullpen during the playoffs with a 4.82 ERA, the team has found a way to manufacture runs all season, ranking seventh with nearly 4.8 runs per game.
The Phillies’ offense is fourth in run production, with a bit over 4.8 runs per game. They see a falloff at the plate on the road, with nearly 5.1 runs per game at home compared to 4.6 runs per game on the road.
The New York Mets have scored 11 runs in the past three games in the 8th inning or later. With how shaky the Phillies bullpen has been, coupled with Nola’s career road woes, the Mets will take a 2-1 lead in the series.
MLB Pick: New York Mets -102
To find more baseball value bets and MLB picks, visit Greg Peterson’s daily MLB lines.
