Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Nationals vs. Marlins Total 7.5. Greg’s Total 6.9.
The Marlins are last in the league in runs per game while the Nationals are 24th among the 30 MLB teams in runs per game and last in home runs. Nationals starter Josiah Gray enters having allowed 10 runs in his last seven starts with the team scoring zero or one run in four of his last seven starts. Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo has a 3.38 ERA with three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts, dating back to the 2022 season.
Brewers vs. Cardinals (-180). Greg’s Line: Brewers +130
The Cardinals have lost each of Jordan Montgomery’s last six starts with Montgomery posting a 5.20 ERA and an opponents batting average of .284 in his last five starts. Brewers starter Wade Miley is a pitch-to-contact guy with just 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings this season. Yet, he has a 3.60 ERA thanks to allowing 1.1 home runs and 1.1 walks per nine innings with three runs or fewer allowed in six of his seven starts this season.
Reds vs. Rockies Total 12. Greg’s Total 13.1.
The Rockies lead the National League in home batting average and get to face Reds starting pitcher Brandon Williamson in his first career MLB start. Williamson posted a 6.62 ERA with 5.2 walks per nine innings with the Louisville Bats at the AAA level this season. Rockies starter Chase Anderson makes his first start in 2023 after logging a 6.38 ERA with 5.6 walks per nine innings with this very Reds team last season.
Angels vs. Orioles (-135). Greg’s Line: Orioles -157.
The Angels give Chase Silseth his first start of the 2023 season after he logged a 6.59 ERA with 3.8 walks and 2.2 home runs per nine innings allowed in seven starts in 2022. Though Orioles starter Deam Kremer has a 4.97 ERA and has to face an Angels lineup that is second in the American League in road batting average and third in runs per game, Kremer is backed up by the league’s second-best bullpen in ERA.