MLB Best Bets and Props
The Sunday MLB schedule is my favorite of the week because almost every team plays a day game. However, it can be tricky due to getaway days and players receiving the afternoon off, so always double-check lineups. That said, we have a packed 16-game slate due to the doubleheader in Colorado, giving us plenty of options for MLB best bets and props.
Below are two of my MLB best bets for Sunday, April 21, but be sure to price shop for the best odds available to you at the time of viewing.
My name is Matt Williams, and I am going to be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams and join my Substack at MattWi77iams/Substack.
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies
3:10 pm ET
Game 1 of Sunday’s doubleheader in Denver will pit Seattle right-hander George Kirby against Colorado’s Cal Quantrill.
Kirby is one of baseball’s most efficient pitchers, making him a popular target for walk props. However, I will concentrate on his Outs prop market against the Rockies.
The 26-year-old goes right at hitters with pristine accuracy, ranking among the league’s best in pitches per plate appearance and boasting a walk rate in the 96th percentile.
Colorado carries a mere 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and ranks dead last in the National League with a 27.4% strikeout rate.
In addition to having a strong matchup against a poor Rockies lineup, Seattle will no doubt allow Kirby to stay in the game as long as he can to spare the bullpen in a doubleheader. The right-hander should be able to safely throw 90-plus pitches.
I expect a strong showing from Kirby on Sunday, which should result in him hitting the Over on his Outs prop.
MLB Best Bet: George Kirby Over 17.5 Outs (+100)
Houston Astros at Washington Nationals
1:35 pm ET
The Houston Astros have come out of the gates slowly this season, sitting in last place behind the Oakland Athletics.
Yes, that is actually a true statement.
However, their bats certainly work, especially against southpaws. The Astros lineup boasts the highest wRC+(145), on-base percentage (.369), and slugging percentage (.462) versus left-handed pitchers in the American League.
This is bad news for Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker, who pitched well in his season debut on April 15 against the Dodgers, but he was below average at best in the minor leagues last season.
On the other side, Cristian Javier will get the ball for Houston. The 27-year-old is off to a solid start in 2024, posting a 1.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over four outings. Although, he has been fortunate to this point with a .215 BABIP and 2.6% HR/RB ratio.
All in all, the Astros are the clear favorite for a reason, and I fully expect them to control the opening innings and take a lead into the sixth, making the Houston F5 run line a solid play.
MLB Best Bet: Astros -0.5 F5 (-125)
