MLB Best Bets for Thursday, June 6th
Welcome to my semi-weekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
MLB Best Bets
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
Bryan Woo vs JP Sears
Bryan Woo isn’t striking out hitters at the rate he did in the minor leagues, but the Mariners’ pitcher has still been extremely effective at limiting runs.
Woo enters his sixth start with a 1.30 ERA and a 2.63 FIP. He has only struck out 18.4% of opposing hitters and he ranks in just the 27th percentile in whiff rate (22.1%) and the 28th percentile in chase rate (25.9%).
Normally an inability to generate swings and misses would be a red flag, but Woo has been brilliant at limiting hard contact to this point of the season.
He ranks in the 99th percentile in barrel rate this season (2.6%) and 39.0% of batted balls are considered hard-hit. Woo combines those metrics with elite command – he has walked just 2.0% of hitters – and the result has been extremely positive.
Oakland owns the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors (26.1%), and it is 16th in wRC+ this season (98). The team’s biggest strength is getting on base via walk, something Woo tends not to allow. Bettors should get a performance that mirrors his statistical profile against the Athletics today.
Woo doesn’t have the best lineup behind him by any stretch, but JP Sears should raise the floor of Seattle’s offense.
Sears is similar to Woo in that he doesn’t induce strikeouts at a high rate. He ranks in the 47th percentile in chase rate (27.8%), but his whiff rate (21.2%) and strikeout rate (16.3%) are in the 19th and 13th percentiles respectively.
Unlike Woo, Sears does not limit hard contact. He ranks in the 26th percentile in barrel rate (9.1%) and the 33rd percentile in hard-hit rate (40.9%). Even a poor lineup like Seattle’s should be able to get going against Sears.
Play: Mariners F5 (-0.5, +110)
