MLB Best Bets for Thursday, May 2nd
Welcome to my biweekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
MLB Best Bets
Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros
Logan Allen vs Spencer Arrighetti
The first three starts of Spencer Arrighetti’s career have not gone well. In 10.2 innings of work he has a 10.97 ERA and a 2.34 WHIP. But, there are positive signs that show Arrighetti has some solid things to build on.
First, his 3.79 FIP would suggest some positive regression is on the way. The usual factor I look toward to find out where that regression would come from is BABIP, and sure enough, opposing hitters are batting .500 on balls in play against Arrighetti. That should regress to the mean, and once it does the Astros’ prospect has a solid arsenal to work with.
Arrighetti’s swing-and-miss profile is very solid. He has struck out 25.9% of hitters and ranks in the 78th percentile in whiff rate (30.3%). The ability to mow hitters down balances out some command issues (12.1% walk rate). Hitters have also failed to generate consistent hard contact in three starts – Arrighetti ranks in the 89th percentile in barrel rate and the 58th percentile in hard hit rate – which is a big positive.
I’ll be betting on Arrighetti to show some of those positive signs tonight against Cleveland. I’ll also be betting on Logan Allen’s struggles continuing.
In four starts and 31.1 innings of work Allen’s numbers are consistent (5.46 ERA/5.12 FIP). The biggest issue for Allen is his inability to get hitters to swing and miss. He ranks in the 27th percentile in chase rate (25.0%), the 16th percentile in whiff rate (19.7%) and the 9th percentile in strikeout rate (12.8%). Combine that inability to sit guys down with a penchant for giving up hard contact (45.9% hard hit rate) and you get why Allen’s numbers are where they are.
Houston’s lineup has been consistently great all season long. It’s a group I trust to take advantage of Allen’s issues. They lead the league in strikeout rate (16.7%), are fourth in wOBA (.330) and fifth in wRC+ (116). I expect them to give Arrighetti the run support he needs to grab the win in the first five frames.
Play: Astros -0.5 F5 (-105)
