MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, June 4th
Welcome to my semi-weekly first five inning article! Twice a week throughout baseball season I’ll write up some of the more intriguing first five inning plays of the day. Handicapping pitchers is such a big part of betting baseball, and betting first fives is something I have gravitated to as a bettor.
As always, make sure to keep an eye out for Adam Burke’s columns which will appear daily. Adam is our primary baseball mind, and will be so once again throughout this season.
Throughout the season I will be keeping track of the results of this article, which you can view here.
MLB Best Bets
NOTE: Trevor Williams and the Nationals were a wager in a previous version of this article, but Williams was placed on IR after the publishing of this article.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
Seth Lugo vs Triston McKenzie
So, we meet again…
Last week Triston McKenzie was on the bump in Colorado, and I used that opportunity to fade the Guardians’ starter. McKenzie acquiesced by giving up five earned runs in 5.0 innings of work to the Rockies. Colorado went over its team total, but could not get the runline on account of poor pitching.
We go back to the well tonight, but with a better team to support.
First, let’s get McKenzie’s numbers out of the way.
McKenzie heads into this contest with a 3.77 ERA but a 5.58 FIP and 4.59 xERA. He ranks in the 14th percentile of pitchers in chase rate (24.0%) and the 35th percentile in whiff rate (23.1%). Only 21.9% of the hitters McKenzie has faced to this point have been struck out.
Command is a massive issue as well. In McKenzie’s last five starts he has walked 13.4% of the batters he has faced. For the season he is in the 8th percentile in walk rate.
Oh, and his contact numbers are well below average too. He comes into this game with a barrel rate allowed of 11.5% and a hard-hit rate that ranks in the 46th percentile (38.9%).
In summary, McKenzie doesn’t strike out hitters, walks them at an extremely high rate and allows a below average amount of hard contact for a starting pitcher.
On the other end, I’ll trust Seth Lugo to hold down this Guardians lineup enough to get the Royals the win today.
Lugo has some signs of regression – 1.72 ERA with a 3.21 FIP – but that regression still lands at an above average pitcher.
Kansas City has become one of the better lineups in baseball over the last month. Since the beginning of May the Royals are ninth in wRC+ (108) and third in wOBA (.326). They should be able to get Lugo the run support needed against McKenzie to get this wager home today.
Play: Royals F5 (-0.5, +124)
