MLB Best Bets Today July 4:

The small schedule from Monday is explained by today’s slate, as all 30 teams take the field on the July 4 holiday. Action runs from 11:05 a.m. ET late into the night, as the final first pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. We have a wide variety of pitching matchups on today’s card, so it should be an intriguing day of baseball.

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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 4:

Baltimore Orioles (-148, 7) at Seattle Mariners

4:10 p.m. ET

There aren’t a whole lot of options later on the card and it is important to me to be able to give lead time for whatever’s in the article. So, I was only able to find one play today, but I do like it, despite the juice that we have to pay.

The Orioles battle the Mariners with Corbin Burnes up against Bryce Miller. We’ve got a low total of 7 here, as Burnes is the second favorite for the AL Cy Young and Miller has just a 1.99 ERA at home in 54.1 innings of work. However, despite Miller’s substantial home success, I’m looking at the Orioles 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5. We have to lay -145, but this is an outstanding Orioles lineup and I don’t think they’ll be completely held down by Miller.

He’s allowed an 11.6% Barrel% on the season with a 42.7% Hard Hit%, so he’s definitely given up a good amount of hard contact over the course of the season and not all of that has been on the road. The Orioles are batting .276/.340/.522 against righties over the last 30 days with a .369 wOBA.

Baltimore has a lot of left-handed power and Miller has allowed 11 of his 14 homers to left-handed batters. The roof should be open on a beautiful day in Seattle and hopefully that will give the bats a little bit of a bump as well.

Pick: Orioles 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-145)