Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, October 13, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Unders hold a huge edge on Game 1 totals of 8 or more dating back to the year 2000, 16-7 (+7.3 units, ROI: 31.7%)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
In the last 112 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 50-62 SU (-36.05 units, ROI: -32.2%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-162 vs NYM)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
*In the 2024 playoffs, those worse bullpens on two-game winning streaks are 0-5 for -5.77 units, and those on three-game winning streaks are 0-2 for -2.48 units.
System Match: 2-games – FADE NY METS (+136 at LAD)
NY METS
LETDOWN after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-19 (38.7%) -11.35 units, ROI: -36.6%
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+136 at LAD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-162 vs. NYM)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for the majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (+136 at LAD
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle. *In the ’24 playoffs, those on 2-game winning streaks are 0-5 for -5.77 units, and those on 3-game winning streaks are 0-2 for -2.48 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY METS (+136 at LAD)
MLB Betting Trends & Systems for the Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 67-71 SU (-33.86 units, ROI: -24.5%)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-162 vs. NYM)
Series wins status
Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 77-74 on run lines (+14.99 units, ROI: 9.9%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs. NYM)
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 112 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 50-62 SU (-36.05 units, ROI: -32.2%) since ’19, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-162 vs NYM)
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 51-44 SU (+16.08 units, ROI: 16.9%) and 62-33 on run lines (+21.10 units, ROI: 22.2%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS
Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 69-69, Overs have produced a return of +18.66 units, an ROI of 13.5%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
LCS Round Angles
If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 56-23 (70.9%) for +18.3 units since 2000, an ROI of 23.2%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-162 vs NYM)
Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 39-30 (+19.28 units, ROI: 13.5%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+136 at LAD)
Game 1 home teams in the LCS round are on an 11-5 SU (+4.67 units, ROI: 29.2%) surge since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-162 vs NYM)
Unders hold a huge edge on Game 1 totals of 8 or more dating back to the year 2000, 16-7 (+7.3 units, ROI: 31.7%)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +136 (+15 diff)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION SLIGHTLY FAVORING UNDER (0.3 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-LAD UNDER 8 (-0.3 diff)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) NY METS (94-75) at (952) LA DODGERS (101-66)
Trend: NYM better at night (62-37, +23.35 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+136 at LAD)
Trend: LA Dodgers are 2-6 in last eight home games vs. NYM
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-162 vs. NYM)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Trend Spots
The following situational MLB trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) NY METS (94-75) at (952) LA DODGERS (101-66)
Stat: Jack Flaherty’s postseason stats since 2020 (3 appearances, 13.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 BB)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.NY METS
LETDOWN after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-19 (38.7%) -11.35 units, ROI: -36.6%
System Matches: FADE NY METS (+136 at LAD)