New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction:

While the Philadelphia Phillies have a firm lead in the National League East race, they and the New York Mets have plenty to play for on Saturday in Philadelphia. The Phillies are going for the league’s best record, and the Mets are aiming for the final National League Wild Card spot.

Luis Severino starts for the Mets. Severino enters on his best run of the season, with zero or one run allowed in four of his past five starts. He has a 3.74 ETA with a career-low 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

Most of Severino’s struggles have come on the road, supplying a 4.82 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 2.86 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings at Citi Field.

Backing up Severino is a Mets offense that ranks ninth in the league in both total offense, with over 4.7 runs per game and runs per game on the road, with nearly 4.9 runs.

The Phillies give Kolby Allard the start on Saturday. Allard will be making his fifth appearance of the season, posting a 3.50 ERA with the Phillies, but he has had tons of warning signs for regression.

Allard has allowed five home runs in his 18 innings pitched. Yet he has only surrendered seven earned runs, posting a 5.63 fielding independent that is much more on par with his lifetime 5.92 ERA.

Behind both starting pitchers are bullpens that have struggled. The Mets 4.07 bullpen ERA since July 1 ranks 15th, while the Phillies 4.45 ERA in this span ranks 21st.

With the Phillies second in the National League in both runs and home runs per game at home this season, Saturday’s showdown sets up to have lots of offense.

MLB Pick: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Over 8.5 Runs (Would play over 9 as well.)

To find more baseball value bets and MLB picks, visit Greg Peterson’s daily MLB lines.