Today the work week wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
6:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-130, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers
The Blue Jays (23-26) cruised to a 9-1 victory in last night’s series opener, taking care of business as a short -105 road dog. In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays hand the ball to righty Alek Manoah (1-1, 3.00) and the Tigers (23-27) counter with fellow righty Matt Manning (0-1, 4.88 ERA). This line opened at a pick’em with both sides listed at -110 odds. Sharps have pounced on Toronto laying a cheap price, steaming the Blue Jays up from -110 to -130. Toronto is receiving roughly 65% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites are 145-104 (58%) with a 3% ROI this season. Favorites with 10-cents of steam or more playing a team who missed the playoffs the previous year are 78-45 (63%) with a 3% ROI. Toronto also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Manoah has pitched well his last two starts, allowing zero earned runs in 14 innings pitched against the Twins and Rays. Meanwhile, Manning has a 5.91 ERA in two May starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 10.2 innings pitched against the Marlins and Diamondbacks. He has a 5.82 ERA at home compared to 3.38 on the road. The Blue Jays have a 2.60 team ERA over the past ten games compared to 5.07 for the Tigers.
8:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-150, 8) at St. Louis Cardinals
This is the first game of a three-game series. The Cubs (27-24) just dropped two of three against the Braves, losing 3-0 yesterday as -115 home favorites. Conversely, the Cardinals (23-26) just swept the Orioles, winning the series finale 5-4 as +108 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Cubs send out lefty Shota Imanaga (5-0, 0.84 ERA) and the Cardinals tap righty Miles Mikolas (3-5, 5.77 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -130 road favorite and St. Louis a +120 home dog. Sharps have laid the wood with the Cubs, steaming Chicago up from -130 to -150. Chicago is receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites with a winning record coming off a loss playing a team with a losing record are 65-36 (64%) with a 15% ROI this season. Chicago also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Cubs have the better offense, registering 218 runs scored compared to 189 for St. Louis. Chicago is 8-1 when Imanaga starts. He has a 0.69 ERA in four May starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 26 innings pitched. On the flip side, Mikolas has a 5.57 ERA in four May starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 21 innings pitched. Mikolas has a 6.20 ERA at home compared to 5.51 on the road.
8:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-210, 11) at Colorado Rockies
This is the first game of a three-game series. The Phillies (37-14) have won six straight and just swept the Rangers, cruising 5-2 yesterday as -200 home favorites. On the other hand, the Rockies (16-33) just dropped two of three against the Athletics, falling 10-9 in extra innings yesterday as +105 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies start lefty Cristopher Sanchez (2-3, 3.31 ERA) and the Rockies go with fellow lefty Ty Blach (1-2, 5.14 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -185 road favorite and Colorado a +170 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed the Phillies, driving Philadelphia up from -185 to -210. The Phillies are receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public in addition to a 25-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more in their favor are 28-11 (71%) with a 23% ROI this season. The Phillies have the better offense, hitting .260 with 60 homers and 277 runs scored compared to the Rockies hitting .246 with 42 homers and 199 runs scored. Sanchez has a 2.75 ERA in three May starts (all wins), allowing only 6 earned runs in 19.2 innings pitched. Philadelphia is 15-6 on the road. Colorado is 9-12 at home. The Phillies are +93 in run differential. The Rockies are -74. The Phillies are 32-11 (74%) with a 20% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB.
