Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual 3-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for one of tonight’s games.
6:45 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-115, 8) at Washington Nationals
This is the opening game of a four-game series. The Mets (40-41) just dropped two of three against the Astros, losing Sunday’s series finale 10-5 in extra innings as -125 home favorites. Similarly, the Nationals (39-44) just lost two of three against the Rays, falling 5-0 yesterday as +165 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Mets hand the ball to lefty Drew Peterson (3-0, 3.67 ERA) and the Nationals counter with fellow lefty MacKenzie Gore (6-7, 3.60 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -105 odds. Some shops opened the Nationals a slight -110 or -115 home favorite. Regardless of the opener, we’ve seen sharp money back New York at a coin-flip price, driving the Mets up to a -115 road favorite. New York is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling both Pro and Joe support in addition to a line move in their favor. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 124-103 (55%) with a 2% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, the favorite is 174-119 (59%) with a 1% ROI.
The Mets have the better offense, hitting .250 with 102 homers and 393 runs scored compared to the Nationals hitting .235 with only 68 homers and 341 runs scored. The Mets are 4-0 in Peterson’s four June starts. He has a 2.84 ERA on the road compared to 4.40 at home. Gore has a 5.13 ERA in five June starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 26.1 innings pitched (the Nationals went 2-3 in those five starts). The Mets are hitting .265 against lefties (6th in MLB). The Nationals are hitting .230 against lefties (25th). New York is 3-0 against Washington this season. New York is 6-4 in their last ten games, hitting .269 with a 4.70 ERA. Washington is 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .244 with a 5.28 ERA. The Mets are 19-16 on the road. The Nationals at 17-19 at home. Sharps have also leaned under, as the total has fallen from 8.5 to 8 across the market despite only 26% of bets taking the under. The forecast calls for high 70s with 8-10 MPH winds blowing in from center at Nationals Park. When the wind blows in 5 MPH or more the under is 40-32 (56%) with a 7% ROI this season.
