Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
3:07 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (-185, 8.5)
The Blue Jays (61-68) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 5-3 as -150 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-4 as -185 home favorites. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Angels (54-75) hand the ball to righty Carson Fulmer (0-4, 4.24 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with fellow righty Bowden Francis (6-3, 4.38 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -160 home favorite and Los Angeles a +145 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared away by the chalk and have gotten down hard on the Blue Jays, steaming Toronto up from -160 to -185. The Blue Jays are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy Pro and Joe support in addition to a big 25-cent steam move in their favor. Saturday favorites -150 or more are 73-38 (66%) with a 3% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the favorite is 244-163 (60%) with a 2% ROI. Toronto has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Blue Jays have the better offense, hitting .240 with 542 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting .234 with 512 runs scored. Fulmer has a 5.82 ERA in four August starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings pitched. The Angels are 1-4 in his last five starts. He has a 5.03 ERA on the road compared to 3.57 at home. Francis has a 1.40 ERA in four August starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 19.1 innings pitched. Toronto is 5-0 against Los Angeles this season.
7:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians (-125, 8.5)
The Rangers (60-69) took last night’s series opener 5-3, cashing as +125 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Rangers start righty Jon Gray (5-4, 3.75 ERA) and the Guardians (73-55) go with fellow righty Ben Lively (10-8, 3.68 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -115 home favorite and Texas a +105 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the Guardians in a bounce back spot laying short home chalk, steaming Cleveland up from -115 to -125. The Guardians are receiving 77% of moneyline bets but 89% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their direction. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 416-284 (59%) with a 2% ROI this season. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 120-76 (61%) with a 4% ROI. The Guardians have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Cleveland has buy-low, sell-high value as the Guardians are 1-6 in their last seven games while the Rangers are 4-1 over their last five. Cleveland is 51-24 (68%) with a 19% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in MLB. The Rangers are 26-38 on the road. The Guardians are 38-21 at home. Lively has a 3.42 ERA at home compared to 3.90 on the road. Gray has a 4.19 ERA on the road compared to 3.45 at home.
7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-110, 9.5) at Kansas City Royals
The Royals (72-56) won last night’s Interleague series opener 7-4, taking care of business as -135 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies (74-54) send out lefty Ranger Suarez (10-5, 2.87 ERA) and the Royals tap righty Brady Singer (9-8, 3.18 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -115 road favorite and Kansas City a +105 home dog. The public is all over the Phillies to bounce back laying short road chalk. However, despite 66% of moneyline bets backing Philadelphia we’ve seen this line fall away from the Phillies (-115 to -110) and toward the Royals (+105 to -105). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Royals, as the line is moving toward Kansas City despite only receiving 34% of moneyline bets. Mark Carlson, the home plate ump, is 56% to the home team historically. Suarez has a 6.61 ERA in three August starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 16.1 innings pitched. The Phillies are 1-5 in his last six starts. Singer has a 2.50 ERA at home compared to 4.04 on the road. The Royals are hitting .260 against lefties, ranking 7th in MLB. Kansas City is 7-3 in their last ten games, hitting .303. The Phillies are 5-5 over their last ten games, hitting .264.
