Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
4:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians (-135, 9)
The Guardians (47-26) took last night’s series opener 7-1, cruising as -125 home favorites. In this late afternoon rematch, the Blue Jays (35-40) hand the ball to righty Jose Berrios (6-5, 3.13 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow righty Ben Lively (6-3, 3.02 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -125 home favorite and Toronto a +115 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the the Guardians laying short chalk at home, steaming Cleveland up from -125 to -135. The Guardians are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Cleveland has the offensive edge, hitting .243 with 82 homers and 367 runs scored compared to Toronto hitting .233 with only 61 homers and 288 runs scored. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 66-36 (65%) with a 10% ROI this season. The Guardians are 33-14 (70%) with a 23% ROI as a favorite, the top chalk team in MLB. Cleveland also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Guardians are 24-9 at home. The Blue Jays are 17-21 on the road. Berrios has a 3.88 ERA on the road compared to 2.36 at home. Lively has a 1.90 ERA at home compared to 3.75 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-155, 8) at Houston Astros
The Astros (36-40) stole last night’s series opener 14-11, cashing as +130 home dogs. In this late afternoon rematch, the Orioles (49-26) turn to righty Corbin Burnes (8-2, 2.14 ERA) and the Astros send out fellow righty Ronel Blanco (7-2, 2.43 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -135 road favorite and Houston a +125 home dog. Sharps like the Orioles to bounce back with a win today, steaming Baltimore up from -135 to -155. The Orioles are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars, a heavy Pro and Joe bet split in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 66-36 (65%) with a 10% ROI this season. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 241-152 (61%) with a 5% ROI. Favorites with a winning record off a loss playing an opponent with a losing record are 74-42 (64%) with a 3% ROI. Baltimore is 40-21 (64%) with a 9% ROI as a favorite, the second best chalk team in MLB. The Orioles have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Orioles have the better offense, hitting 123 homers and scoring 401 runs compared to the Astros hitting 90 homers and scoring 342 runs. Burnes has a 1.35 ERA in three June starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 20 innings pitched. Baltimore is 6-0 in Burnes’ last six starts.
4:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-170, 7.5) at Miami Marlins
The Marlins (26-49) took last night’s series opener 3-2 in extra innings, cashing as +150 home dogs. In this late afternoon rematch, the Mariners (44-34) start righty Logan Gilbert (4-4, 2.93 ERA) and the Marlins tap fellow righty Shaun Anderson (0-1, 10.13 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -155 road favorite and Miami a +140 home dog. Wiseguys like the Mariners to get back on track, steaming Seattle up from -155 to -170. The Mariners are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, indicating lopsided support from both sharps and the betting public in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 241-152 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season. Road favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 43-23 (65%) with a 10% ROI. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 66-36 (65%) with a 10% ROI. Seattle has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team, as well as correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. Seattle has the more explosive offense, hitting 85 homers with 301 runs scored compared to Miami hitting 61 homers with 267 runs scored. Gilbert has a 1.66 ERA in three June starts, allowing only 4 earned runs is 21.2 innings pitched. Anderson was recently acquired from the Rangers and has only pitched in three games this season, giving up 6 earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched.
