Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
1:37 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays (-165, 8)
The Tigers (49-50) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-4 as +115 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 7-3 as +100 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Tigers send out righty Keider Montero (1-2, 5.47 ERA) and the Blue Jays (44-54) counter with righty Kevin Gausman (7-8, 4.50 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -155 home favorite and Detroit a +130 road dog. Sharps like Toronto to avoid the sweep, as they’ve driven the Blue Jays up from -155 to -165. Essentially, all movement has been in favor of the Blue Jays, which is especially notable since they have lost two straight, are laying a moderately hefty price and also have a worse record. Toronto is receiving 60% of moneyline bets, signaling slight public support but also respected sharp money he form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the favorite is 198-136 (59%) with a 1% ROI this season. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 68-37 (65%) with a 7% ROI. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 322-209 (61%) with a 4% ROI. Toronto also has value as a non-division favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored are both likely to benefit the team who is expected to win. Gausman has a 2.77 ERA in two July starts. Montero has a 3.77 ERA in three July starts.
2:35 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (-130, 8.5)
The Orioles (60-38) have taken the first two games in this three-game series, winning the opener 9-1 as -120 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 8-4 as -105 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Orioles start righty Dean Kremer (4-5, 4.38 ERA) and the Rangers (46-52) counter with lefty Andrew Heaney (3-10, 3.79 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. The public sees a “no brainer” play on Baltimore, who is laying a coin-flip price and has the far better record. However, despite 74% of bets taking Baltimore we’ve actually seen this line shoot up toward Texas -110 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rangers to avoid to the sweep, as the line is moving heavily in their favor despite receiving only 24% of moneyline bets. Texas also has “fishy” value as a sub .500 favorite on a losing skid playing a team with a far better record. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 322-209 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. Texas also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is favored to win. Heaney has a 1.74 ERA in two July starts. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in four straight starts.
4:07 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics (-135, 9)
The Athletics (39-61) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 13-3 as -120 home favorites and then cruising again yesterday 8-2 as -145 home favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Angels (41-57) tap righty Carson Fulmer (0-2, 3.45 ERA) and the Athletics rebuttal with righty Joey Estes (4-4, 5.29 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a -130 home favorite and Los Angeles a +115 road dogs. Sharp seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have laid the modest chalk with Oakland at home, driving the Athletics up from -130 to -135. Oakland is receiving roughly 75% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating one-way Pro and Joe support in addition to a slight line adjustment in their favor. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 68-37 (65%) with a 7% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, the favorite is 198-136 (59%) with a 1% ROI this season. The Athletics are 9-2 (82%) as a favorite this season. Oakland is 6-4 over their last 10 games, hitting .303. Los Angeles is 4-6 over their last 10 games, hitting just .213. Estes has a 1.91 ERA at home compared to 8.05 on the road.
