Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with 11 games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
2:15 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-115, 7.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
This is the final game of a four-game series. The Padres (76-59) took the first two games, winning the opener 7-4 as +105 road dogs and winning the second game 7-5 as -145 road favorites. Then the Cardinals (66-67) bounced back with a 4-3 win yesterday, cashing as +105 home dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Padres start righty Michael King (11-7, 3.14 ERA) and the Cardinals go with righty Sonny Gray (11-9, 4.07 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -115 home favorite and San Diego a -105 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Padres at a coin flip price, steaming San Diego up from -105 to -115. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on the Padres. San Diego is receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy split in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. The Padres have value as a non-division favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to benefit and come from the better team who is expected to win. San Diego has the better bats, hitting .266 with 154 homers and 642 runs scored compared to the Cardinals hitting .247 with 136 homers and 545 runs scored. King has a 2.45 ERA in four August starts. San Diego is 7-2 in his last nine starts. He has a 2.79 ERA on the road compared to 3.56 at home. Gray has a 5.10 ERA in five August starts. St. Louis is 1-5 in his last six starts.
3:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (-125, 11.5)
The Rockies (50-84) have won two of the first three games in this four-game series. Colorado took the opener 3-2 as -115 home favorites, the Marlins (48-85) won the second game 9-8 as +125 road dogs, then the Rockies won again yesterday 8-2 as -140 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Marlins tap righty Valente Bellozo (2-2, 3.35 ERA) and the Rockies start fellow righty Bradley Blalock (1-0, 3.06 ERA). This line opened with Colorado listed as a -115 home favorite and Miami a -105 road dog. Sharps have jumped on the Rockies laying short home chalk, steaming Colorado up from -115 to -125. The Rockies are receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling a heavy dose of both public and wiseguy support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Colorado has the superior offense, hitting .244 with 146 homers and 572 runs scored compared to Miami hitting .240 with 123 homers and 496 runs scored. The Rockies have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Miami is 23-41 on the road, the 3rd worst road record in MLB.
5:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Cincinnati Reds (-135, 9.5)
The Athletics (58-75) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-4 as +115 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 9-6 as +105 road dogs. In tonight’s series finale, the Athletics hand the ball to righty J.T. Ginn (0-0, 2.45 ERA) and the Reds (63-70) counter with righty Julian Aguiar (1-0, 3.60 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -115 home favorite and Oakland a -105 road dog. Wiseguys are expecting the Reds to avoid the sweep, steaming Cincinnati up from -115 to -135. The Reds are receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a notable 20-cent steam move in their direction. Cincinnati has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Reds also have fishy buy-low value as a favorite off a loss playing an opponent off a win. Oakland is 25-40 on the road, the 4th worst road record in MLB. The Reds are +25 in run differential. The Athletics are -76. Cincinnati is hitting .260 over their last ten games compared to .231 for Oakland.
