Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with only 8 games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games today.
7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (-105, 7.5)
The Braves (54-46) have lost four straight and just got swept in a two-game series against the Reds, losing yesterday’s series finale 9-4 as -125 home favorites. On the flip side, the Mets (53-48) have won four of their last five games and just swept the Yankees in a two-game series, winning yesterday’s finale 12-3 as +145 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Braves hand the ball to lefty Chris Sale (13-3, 2.70 ERA) and the Mets counter with righty Luis Severino (7-3, 3.58 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -120 road favorite and New York a +110 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this even 50/50 moneyline bet split we’ve seen the line plummet away from the Braves (-120 to -105) and toward the Mets (+110 to -105). In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, based on this big adjustment we can infer that pro money has sided with New York. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to pick’em” line movement in favor of the Mets. Some shops are even hopping the fence to make the Mets a slight favorite. New York has the better offense, hitting .251 with 132 homers and 493 runs scored compared to Atlanta hitting .241 with 115 homers and 422 runs scored. The Mets are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .265 with a 3.68 ERA. The Braves are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting just .221 with a 4.60 ERA. New York is hitting .264 against lefties, 5th best in MLB. Severino is 4-1 at home with a 2.82 ERA.
9:38 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (-115, 9.5)
The Athletics (41-63) just took two of three against the Astros but lost yesterday’s series finale 8-1 as +125 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Angels (45-57) just swept the Mariners, winning yesterday’s series finale 2-1 as +145 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Athletics start righty Ross Stripling (1-9, 5.82 ERA) and the Angels go with lefty Kenny Rosenberg (0-0, 6.30 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -105 odds. The public is leaning toward Oakland at a coin-flip price. However, despite 58% of moneyline bets backing the Athletics, we’ve seen this line shoot up in favor of the Angels -105 to -115. This signals sharp “pick’em to favorite” reverse line movement on Los Angeles, as the line is moving in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 176-108 (62%) with a 1% ROI this season. When two sub .500 teams face off, the favorite is 203-139 (59%) with a 1% ROI. Oakland is 15-36 on the road this season, the 3rd worst road record in MLB. Stripling is making his first start since returning from the Injured List (elbow). Prior to getting injured, he posted a 7.17 ERA in five May starts. The Athletics are hitting .234 against lefties this season, ranking 23rd in MLB. Rosenberg pitched against Oakland his last time out, allowing one earned run in 4 innings.
