Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with only six games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
1:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (-115, 8)
The Yankees (29-15) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-1 as -110 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 4-0 as +120 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Yankees hand the ball to righty Clarke Schmidt (4-1, 2.95 ERA) and the Twins (24-18) go with fellow righty Joe Ryan (2-2, 3.21 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. The public is all over the Yankees at a cheap price due to their better won-loss record and the fact that they’ve dominated this series. However, despite 78% of moneyline bets taking New York we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Minnesota -110 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Minnesota, with pros fading the trendy dog Yankees and instead backing the unpopular home favorite Twins. Favorites with a winning record coming off a loss are 85-43 (66%) with a 12% ROI this season. Favorites on Thursdays are 32-20 (62%) with a 7% ROI, the second most profitable chalk day of the week following Saturday. Minnesota also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win.
7:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-110, 7.5)
This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Rays (22-22) have taken two of the first three games, winning 4-3 yesterday as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s series finale, the Rays start righty Zach Littell (2-2, 3.02 ERA) and the Red Sox (22-21) counter with fellow righty Cooper Criswell (2-1, 2.10 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -110 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +100 road dog. The public is laying the short chalk with the Red Sox at home. However, despite Boston receiving 60% of moneyline bets the line hasn’t budged. Some shops have even dipped a cent or two in favor of Tampa Bay. This signals a sneaky sharp line freeze on Tampa Bay, with the line staying the same or even moving slightly in their favor despite nearly two-thirds of bets backing the Red Sox. In other words, smart Rays money is pushing this game toward a pick’em. Tampa Bay is 25-10 (71%) against Boston since over the past three seasons. Alex Tosi, the home plate ump, has historically favored road teams (54%). Wiseguys have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 7.5. The under is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” smart money discrepancy. The forecast calls for high 50s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in from center at Fenway Park.
7:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-125, 7.5)
This is the first game of a four-game series. The Pirates (19-25) just dropped two of three against the Brewers, losing the finale 10-2 as +135 road dogs. Similarly, the Cubs (25-19) just lost two of three against the Braves but avoided the sweep with a 7-1 win yesterday, cashing as +160 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates turn to righty Jared Jones (2-4, 2.68 ERA) and the Cubs go with southpaw Justin Steele (0-0, 4.73 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -135 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +120 road dog. The public sees an easy win with the Cubs at home laying modest chalk. However, despite receiving 74% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Chicago fall from -135 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Pittsburgh, with pros taking a shot on the plus money Pirates (+120 to +108). Pittsburgh has value as a contrarian divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money. In Steele’s last start he faced the Pirates and gave up 6 earned runs in just 4 innings pitched, losing 10-9. Pros also seem to be leaning over, as the total is 7.5 with the over juiced to -115. The over is receiving 67% of bets but 90% of dollars, a notable sharp bet split. The forecast calls for high 60s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center at Wrigley Field.
