Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 13-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
7:05 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays (-165, 9)
The Rays (3-1) took last night’s Interleague Series opener 6-1, cashing as -175 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Pirates (1-4) start righty Thomas Harrington, who is making his MLB debut. The 23-year-old righty was drafted in the first round in 2022 and went a combined 7-3 with a 2.61 ERA in the minors last season. Meanwhile, the Rays counter with fellow righty Shane Baz, who went 4-3 with a 2.06 ERA in 2024.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -155 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +130 road dog. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on the Rays, steaming Tampa Bay up from -155 to -165. Some shops are even approaching as high as -175.
At Circa, the Rays are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Non-division favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 12-5 (71%) with a 17% ROI this season. Tampa Bay also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays have the edge at the plate, hitting .292 on the season compared to .174 for the Pirates. Tampa Bay has also pitched better, sporting a team ERA of 2.00 compared to 3.86 for Pittsburgh. The Rays are 3-1 at home this season. Pittsburgh is 1-4 on the road.
7:45 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 8.5)
The Angels (3-1) took last night’s Interleague Series opener 5-4 in extra innings, cashing as +140 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, Los Angeles hands the ball to righty Kyle Hendricks (4-12, 5.92 ERA in 2024) while the Cardinals (3-1) counter with lefty Matthew Liberatore (3-4, 4.40 ERA in 2024).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -135 home favorite and Los Angeles a +120 road dog. Wiseguys have laid the chalk with St. Louis in a bounce back spot at home, driving the Cardinals up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, St. Louis is receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is taking in 94% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing lopsided Pro and Joe support in favor of the Cardinals at home.
Favorites off a loss, like the Cardinals here, are 16-6 (73%) with a 24% ROI this season. Non-division favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 12-5 (71%) with a 17% ROI this season. The Cardinals have the better bats, hitting .301 with 23 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting .185 with only 10 runs scored.
Pros also seem to be leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 57% of bets but a hefty 87% of dollars, indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in favor of a lower scoring game. The forecast calls for mid 50s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from right field.
9:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres (-175, 7.5)
The Padres (5-0) took last night’s Interleague Series opener 7-2, cruising as -135 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians (2-2) send out lefty Logan Allen (8-5, 5.73 ERA in 2024) and the Padres tap righty Michael King (0-0, 10.13 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -155 home favorite and Cleveland a +140 road dog. Wiseguys seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have laid the wood with the Padres, steaming San Diego up from -155 to -175.
At Circa, the Padres are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. This signals massive public and sharp support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
San Diego has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. The Padres also have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the “better” team based on the betting odds.
The Padres hit for a better average (.290 vs .258) and also have a better team ERA (1.80 vs 3.86). San Diego is a perfect 5-0 at home this season.
We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -115. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 28% of bets and 55% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 33% of bets and 43% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in favor of the under.
The forecast calls for high 50s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from left field.
