Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
12:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds (-145, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Reds (2-3) took the opener 14-3, easily cashing as +110 home dogs. Then the Rangers (4-2) bounced back with a 1-0 win yesterday, taking care of business as -150 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Rangers hand the ball to righty Jack Leiter (1-0, 1.80 ERA) and the Reds counter with fellow righty Hunter Greene (0-0, 3.60 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -125 home favorite and Texas a +110 road dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Reds, steaming Cincinnati up from -125 to -145.
At Circa, the Reds are receiving 89% of moneyline bets and over 95% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way chalk support from both Pros and Joe out in the desert.
Home favorites, like the Reds here, are 34-16 (68%) with a 13% ROI this season. Favorites off a loss are 18-8 (69%) with a 17% ROI. Non-division home favorites with steam 10-cents or more in their direction are 18-6 (75%) with a 25% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 17-6 (74%) with a 20% ROI.
The Reds have the edge at the plate, hitting .239 with 24 runs scored compared to the Rangers hitting .207 with only 17 runs scored.
1:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 8.5)
The Angels (4-1) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 5-4 in extra innings as +135 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 9-7 in extra innings as a +120 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Angels send out lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 4.50 ERA) and the Cardinals (3-2) rebuttal with righty Sonny Gray (1-0, 3.60 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -135 home favorite and Los Angeles a +120 road dog. Wiseguys are banking on the Cardinals to avoid the sweep, driving St. Louis up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of St. Louis at home.
Favorites off a loss, like the Cardinals here, are 18-8 (69%) with a 17% ROI this season. Home favorites are 34-16 (68%) with a 13% ROI. Non-division home favorites with steam 10-cents or more in their direction are 18-6 (75%) with a 25% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 17-6 (74%) this season with a 20% ROI.
Favorites who have lost the first two games of a 3-game series and are looking to avoid a sweep have gone 143-81 (64%) with a 7% ROI since 2022.
The Cardinals have the better bats, hitting .289 with 30 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting only .201 with 19 runs scored.
4:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres (-185, 7.5)
The Padres (6-0) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 7-2 as -135 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-0 as -175 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Guardians (2-3) go with righty Ben Lively (0-0, 4.50 ERA) and the Padres send out fellow righty Dylan Cease (0-0, 6.23 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -170 home favorite and Cleveland a +150 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and banking on the Padres to complete the sweep, steaming San Diego up from -170 to -185.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving over 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both sharps and the betting public.
San Diego matches several profitable betting systems. Interleague home favorites are 17-6 (74%) this season with a 20% ROI. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 11-3 (79%) with a 31% ROI. Interleague favorites off a win are 13-5 (72%) with an 18% ROI . Home favorites are 34-16 (68%) with a 13% ROI.
The Padres have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
San Diego has the better offense, hitting .299 with 31 runs scored compared to Cleveland hitting .224 with only 18 runs scored. The Padres also have the better pitching staff, sporting a team ERA of 1.50 vs 4.19 for the Guardians.
