Today we have a loaded midweek MLB slate with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
4:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-140, 8.5)
The Padres (68-53) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 2-1 as -210 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 3-0 as -250 home favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Pirates (56-63) start righty Mitch Keller (10-6, 3.56 ERA) and the Padres tap recently acquired lefty Martin Perez (2-5, 4.78 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -125 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +115 road dog. Wiseguys have laid the short chalk with San Diego to complete the sweep, steaming the Padres up from -125 to -140. San Diego is receiving 73% of moneyline bets, evidence of public support but also respected smart money in the form of a 15-cent steam move in their direction. San Diego has a big edge offensively, hitting .265 with 137 homers and 574 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .235 with 117 homers and 494 runs scored. The Padres have betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. San Diego is 9-1 over their last ten games, hitting .286 with a 2.84 ERA. Pittsburgh is 1-9 over their last ten games, hitting .252 with a 5.06 ERA. Keller has a 7.88 ERA in two August starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 8 innings pitched. He has a 4.59 ERA on the road compared to 2.58 at home. Perez has made two starts since joining the Padres (both wins), posting a 2.08 ERA and giving up just 3 earned runs in 13 innings pitched. The Pirates are hitting .245 against lefties this season, ranking 18th in MLB. The Padres are hitting .274 against righties, ranking 1st.
6:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians (-140, 8.5)
The Guardians (71-49) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 9-8 as +105 home dogs and winning again yesterday 2-1 as -155 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series finale, the Cubs (59-62) hand the ball to righty Jameson Taillon (8-6, 3.50 ERA) and the Guardians turn to fellow righty Alex Cobb (0-1, 7.71 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -125 home favorite and Chicago a +115 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Guardians to complete the sweep laying modest home chalk, steaming Cleveland up from -125 to -140. The Guardians are receiving 70% of moneyline bets, indicating public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Cleveland has the better bats, hitting .241 with 139 homers and 553 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .236 with 124 homers and 512 runs scored. The Guardians have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Cubs are 27-35 on the road. The Guardians are 37-20 at home. Cleveland is 50-22 (69%) with a 22% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB. Taillon has a 4.50 ERA on the road compared to 2.56 at home. The Guardians enjoy the better bullpen as well (ERA 2.74 vs 3.63).
9:45 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants (-125, 7.5)
The Braves (63-56) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 1-0 in extra innings as -110 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 4-3 in extra innings as -105 road dogs. In tonight’s series finale, the Braves go with righty Grant Holmes (0-0, 3.79 ERA) and the Giants (61-61) tap lefty Robbie Ray (2-1, 3.98 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -115 home favorite and Atlanta a -105 road dog. Sharps are banking on the Giants to avoid the sweep and have steamed San Francisco up from -115 to -125. The Giants are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet split indicating modest public support but also a heavy dose of sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 381-261 (59%) with a 2% ROI this season. San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. The Giants are 6-4 over their last ten games with a 3.33 ERA. The Braves are 3-7 over their last ten games with a 6.80 ERA.
