Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
1:05 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (-185, 8.5)
The Phillies (49-24) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 9-2 as -185 home favorites and then winning again last night 4-3 as -160 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the Padres (37-40) turn to righty Matt Waldron (4-6, 3.66 ERA) and the Phillies rebuttal with lefty Ranger Suarez (10-1, 1.77 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -160 home favorite and San Diego a +140 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have rushed to the window to back the Phillies at home, steaming Philadelphia up from -160 to -185. The Phillies are receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy public and sharp support in addition to a 25-cent steam move in their favor. The Phillies have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Philadelphia is 43-18 (71%) with a 14% ROI as a favorite this season, the 4th-best chalk team in MLB. The Phillies are 20-3 (87%) with a 36% ROI as a home favorite against a sub .500 team. The Phillies are 13-1 in Suarez’s 14 starts this season. He has a 1.88 ERA in three June starts (all wins), allowing just 3 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched. San Diego is hitting just .226 against lefties this season, ranking 24th in MLB.
2:20 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (-112, 11)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Giants (36-38) won the opener 7-6, cashing as +105 road dogs. Then the Cubs (35-39) bounced back with a 5-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -115 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Giants start lefty Erik Miller (2-2, 4.24 ERA) and the Cubs tap righty Kyle Hendricks (0-4, 8.20 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -120 home favorite and San Francisco a +110 road dog. The public is largely split down the middle, yet we’ve seen this line fall away from the Cubs (-120 to -112) and toward the Giants (+110 to -108). Essentially, smart money has sided with the Giants and driven this game down to a virtual pick’em. San Francisco is only receiving 57% of moneyline bets but 81% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a steam move in their favor. The Giants have the better offense, hitting .247 with 324 runs scored compared to the Cubs hitting .228 with 309 runs scored. San Francisco also has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (11), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Giants may also enjoy a motivational edge, as their legendary outfielder Willie Mays passed away last night and they will now play in his honor.
9:38 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-180, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Angels (29-44) took the opener 5-3, cashing as +120 home dogs. Then the Brewers (43-30) bounced back with a 6-3 win last night, taking care of business as -150 road favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Freddy Peralta (4-4, 4.38 ERA) and the Angels counter with lefty Tyler Anderson (6-6, 2.58 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -150 road favorite and Los Angeles a +135 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Brewers to earn a victory and take the series, steaming Milwaukee up from -150 to -180. The Brewers are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a 30-cent steam move in their favor. The Brewers have the better offense, hitting .253 with 353 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting .240 with 302 runs scored. Non-division road favorites off a win are 85-64 (57%) with a 2% ROI this season. Road favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 42-22 (66%) with an 11% ROI. Milwaukee is 25-14 (64%) with an 11% ROI as a favorite, the 7th-best chalk team in MLB. The Brewers are 21-18 on the road. Los Angeles is 12-24 at home.
