VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, August 18
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 18, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher: ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND (GAME 1 and 2), HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Wednesday 8/16 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 116-80 record, but for -76.22 units. This is an R.O.I. of -38.9%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE ATLANTA, FADE MINNESOTA
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are 106-41 for +20.45 units as of Thursday 8/17. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc, and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, etc, enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +13.9%!
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ’em). After a rare off week of 5-9 (-2.84 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 269-270 for +63.52 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.8%!
System Matches: NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 182-184 for -34.48 units, an R.O.I. of -9.4%. After a 0-3 result (-3.18 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-87 for -20.69 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -13.3%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE WASHINGTON, FADE NY METS
3-game – FADE ARIZONA, FADE SEATTLE
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 185-121 for +27.97 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 9.1%.
System Matches: ATLANTA, LA DODGERS
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/7 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 184-137 for +12.86 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a big 6-1 week and have now gone 90-57 for +23.23 units. The R.O.I. for the season jumped back up to 15.8% after that surge this past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – ST LOUIS, BALTIMORE
3+ games – NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1430-1334 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -166.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE HOUSTON
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1677 (43.3%) for -167.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE MILWAUKEE
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and a R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE HOUSTON, FADE OAKLAND, FADE CINCINNATI, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE COLORADO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 785-657 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.74 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Matches: ATLANTA, TEXAS, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 400-325 (55.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +39.02 units, for a R.O.I. of 5.4%.
System Match: NY YANKEES
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 158-73 (+27.28 units, ROI: 11.8%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match: LA DODGERS
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 135-82 in their last 217 tries (+29.97 units, ROI: 13.8%).
System Match: LA DODGERS
Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won 9 games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 29-13 (+17.61 units, ROI: 41.9%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match: LA DODGERS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS (+25), MILWAUKEE (+25), PITTSBURGH (+54), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+35)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO (+17), LA DODGERS (+33), TAMPA BAY (+29), BALTIMORE (+53)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON OVER 9 (+0.7), MILWAUKEE-TEXAS OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON-NY YANKEES UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), TORONTO-CINCINNATI UNDER 10.5 (-1.4)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for each team.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (66-55) at (902) WASHINGTON (55-67)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (36-36, -10.74 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (27-35, +0.03 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (28-42, -0.56 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(903) SAN FRANCISCO (64-57) at (904) ATLANTA (78-42)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (39-29, +5.52 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (26-40 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Atlanta good against the NL (52-22, +15.90 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at HOME (35-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at NIGHT (44-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(905) NEW YORK-NL (56-66) at (906) ST LOUIS (54-68)
Trend: NYM not good against NL Central/West (25-29, -13.83 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (12-27, -24.63 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM bad as ML underdog (10-28, -17.40 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: St Louis trending OVER at HOME (32-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (31-48, -27.92 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
(907) ARIZONA (62-60) at (908) SAN DIEGO (58-64)
Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (40-35, +5.96 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona 2-0 vs RHP Seth Lugo this season
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (36-47, -30.09 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
(909) MIAMI (63-59) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (74-46)
Trend: Miami not as good as ML underdog (21-34, -6.40 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami non-divisional games trending UNDER (37-50 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (57-27, +15.90 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good against RH starters (54-28, +14.20 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(911) BOSTON (63-58) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (60-61)
Trend: Boston is 5-1 against NY YANKEES this season
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: NYY is bad at NIGHT (33-45, -18.72 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Season series is trending UNDER (1-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(913) DETROIT (54-66) at (914) CLEVELAND (58-63) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Detroit good in division (22-14, +11.57 units)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: Detroit more UNDER in DAY games (25-31 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit-Cleveland series is on 5-1 UNDER stretch this season
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER in division (9-27 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland not as good against LH starters (18-24, -14.00 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
(915) SEATTLE (66-55) at (916) HOUSTON (70-52)
Trend: Seattle trending OVER in NIGHT games (43-35 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle good against AL West/Houston (19-11, +5.77 units in division, 5-2 vs Houston)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Houston not as good bet at HOME (33-26, -7.12 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(917) TAMPA BAY (73-50) at (918) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-62)
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on the ROAD (24-32 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (14-7, +4.60 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: LAA better against RH starters (48-43, +3.07 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
(919) BALTIMORE (74-47) at (920) OAKLAND (34-87)
Trend: Baltimore good against AL teams (55-31, +24.58 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER against AL teams
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland trending OVER against AL Central/East (27-13 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(921) KANSAS CITY (39-84) at (922) CHICAGO-NL (62-58)
Trend: Kansas City decent bet during the DAY (17-29, -4.60 units)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Cubs trending OVER in multiple ways (34-24 O/U at HOME, 24-15 O/U against AL teams, 43-37 O/U against RH starters)
System Match: OVER
(923) TORONTO (67-55) at (924) CINCINNATI (63-59)
Trend: Toronto good against NL teams (24-13, +7.86 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER in other ways (15-20 O/U against NL, 23-43 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cincinnati good against AL teams (18-11, +8.72 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trends UNDER at HOME (26-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(925) MILWAUKEE (65-57) at (926) TEXAS (72-49)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (49-37, +8.12 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER as ML underdog (17-32-2 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Texas trending OVER in HOME games (35-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good as ML favorite (53-29, +7.75 units)
System Match: TEXAS
(927) PITTSBURGH (54-67) at (928) MINNESOTA (63-59)
Trend: Pittsburgh good OVER team as ML underdog (49-36-4, +9.40 units)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (41-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh not good against AL teams (14-23, -8.65 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Trend: Minnesota trending UNDER against NL teams (12-18 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(929) CHICAGO-AL (48-73) at (930) COLORADO (46-75)
Trend: Chicago bad against NL teams (12-22, -7.46 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Colorado slight OVER as ML favorite (10-6 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (28-53, -14.40 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(931) DETROIT (54-66) at (932) CLEVELAND (58-63) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Detroit good in division (22-14, +11.57 units)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: Detroit-Cleveland series is on 5-1 UNDER stretch this season
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER in division (9-27 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAY TODAY
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
TEXAS
LETDOWN after series vs. LA ANGELS: 6-20 (23.1%) -13.23 units, ROI: -50.9%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/18 vs. Milwaukee
System Match: FADE TEXAS