VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, August 4
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Friday, August 4, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, TORONTO, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, MIAMI, MINNESOTA
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Now, in games this season through Sunday, July 30, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 184-104 record, but for -55.74 units.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Better bullpen underdog teams have been strong out of the second-half gate
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a mediocre 12-15 (-1.26 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 245-251 for +53.21 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.7%!
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, TORONTO, MIAMI
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After a 6-9 (-1.93 units) week, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 170-166 for -33.52 units, an R.O.I. of -10%. After a 3-4 result (-1.14 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 63-80 for -21.25 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.9%.
2-Game Winning Streaks:
System Matches: ATLANTA, SAN DIEGO
3+ Game Winning Streaks:
System Matches: KANSAS CITY, TEXAS
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 163-103 for +31.21 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 11.7%.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 7/24 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 166-127 for +11.2 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 80-52 for +22.19 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 16.8% but it was over 50% just a few weeks ago. We’ll continue to track this hoping it turns back around soon.
3+ Game Losing Streaks:
System Matches: CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE ATLANTA, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE TEXAS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE COLORADO, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE TORONTO, FADE NY METS, FADE MIAMI, FADE ARIZONA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE DETROIT, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE TEXAS, FADE MINNESOTA
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Match: MINNESOTA
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 267-123 (68.5%) for +55.48 units and an R.O.I. of 14.2%!
System Matches: SAN DIEGO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 118-94 run (+48.84 units, ROI: 23.0%).
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 42-36 (+7.4 units, ROI: 9.5%) in their last 78 tries to extend streaks.
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 111-78 (+16.98 units, ROI: 9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 12-37 (-14.5 units, ROI: -37.2%) in their L49 tries.
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+18), TORONTO (+22)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI (+19), ST LOUIS (+22), TAMPA BAY (+18), SEATTLE (+50)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS-SAN DIEGO OVER 8 (+0.7), SEATTLE-LA ANGELS OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TORONTO-BOSTON UNDER 10.5 (-1.1), KANSAS CITY-PHILADELPHIA UNDER 9.5 (-0.7)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>>See situational records for each team.
(901) ATLANTA (69-37) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (56-53)
Trend: Atlanta good for bettors on the ROAD (32-17, +6.75 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL competition (46-17, +19.30 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Chicago better against LH starters (20-15, +4.50 units)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago playing well recently (11-2 record, 7.7 RPG in L13)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
(903) WASHINGTON (46-63) at (904) CINCINNATI (59-52)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (24-29, +12.05 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Cincinnati not as good at NIGHT (23-39, -4.00 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Cincinnati good against NL East/West (28-20, +14.25 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati good as ML favorite (22-12, +7.35 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (36-29, +14.15 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending OVER at NIGHT (38-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(905) PITTSBURGH (48-60) at (906) MILWAUKEE (59-51)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (34-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (44-33, +9.00 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee good against NL Central (23-10, +12.05 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(907) COLORADO (42-66) at (908) ST LOUIS (48-62)
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (26-48, -12.80 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado not good against NL competition (29-48, -9.20 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (25-43, -28.10 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis OVER in HOME games (30-22 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(909) LOS ANGELES-NL (62-45) at (910) SAN DIEGO (54-55)
Trend: LAD better in NIGHT games (48-26, +6.85 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good against RH starters (47-28, +6.95 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not often a ML underdog (7-6, +2.55 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: San Diego not as good against RH starters (32-38, -22.90 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
(911) TAMPA BAY (66-45) at (912) DETROIT (48-60)
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER in ROAD games (22-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good against Detroit recently (8-1 in L9 games)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Detroit trending OVER in NIGHT games (32-21 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(913) HOUSTON (62-48) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (57-52)
Trend: Houston good on the ROAD (31-23, +5.90 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: NYY not good at NIGHT (31-39, -14.05 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
(915) CHICAGO-AL (43-67) at (916) CLEVELAND (53-56)
Trend: Chicago better against division (17-16, -0.40 units)
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Cleveland UNDER in division games (8-25 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
(917) TORONTO (60-50) at (918) BOSTON (57-51)
Trend: Toronto UNDER in NIGHT games (22-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto bad in divisional games (8-23, -24.85 units)
System Match: FADE TORONTO
Trend: Boston good in AL East games (16-11, +8.05 units)
System Match: BOSTON
(919) SEATTLE (57-52) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (56-54)
Trend: Seattle better against AL West (16-11, +2.75 units)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle OVER in NIGHT games (38-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle not as good as ML favorite (43-37, -11.45 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE
Trend: LAA good against RH starters (45-36, +6.75 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA OVER in divisional games (18-9 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(921) KANSAS CITY (35-75) at (922) PHILADELPHIA (59-50)
Trend: Kansas City bad bet at NIGHT (18-48, -22.95 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City playing well lately (6-1, +7.15 units in L7 games)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Philadelphia good against AL teams (22-13, +7.80 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia trending UNDER in AL games (12-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(923) NEW YORK-NL (50-58) at (924) BALTIMORE (67-42)
Trend: NYM bad as ML underdog (8-22, -13.60 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: Baltimore more UNDER against NL teams (12-13 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(925) MIAMI (58-52) at (926) TEXAS (63-46)
Trend: Miami better against AL competition (23-12, +13.80)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami not as good as ML underdog (18-29, -4.65 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Texas OVER in HOME games (32-21 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas OVER in interleague games (19-13 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(927) ARIZONA (57-53) at (928) MINNESOTA (56-54)
Trend: Arizona better bet at NIGHT (37-29, +10.14 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Minnesota not as good vs NL teams (12-14, -7.20 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota not as good as ML favorite (44-35, -10.70 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #3: Houston at NY Yankees, Thu 8/3-Sun 8/6
Trend: NY YANKEES are 1-7 (12.5%, -6.90 units) in their L8 games vs. Houston
The R.O.I. on this trend is -86.25%
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Series #4: Toronto at Boston, Fri 8/4-Sun 8/6
Trend #1: TORONTO is 0-7 (0%, -11 units) in its L7 games vs. Boston
The R.O.I. on this trend is -157%
Trend #2: OVER the total is 10-1 (90.9%, +8.95 units) in the L11 games between Boston & Toronto
The R.O.I. on this trend is 81.3%
System Match: FADE TORONTO, PLAY OVER
Series #5: Washington at Cincinnati, Fri 8/4-Sun 8/6
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 1-9 (10%, -10.7 units) in the L10 games between Washington & Cincinnati
The R.O.I. on this trend is -107%
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Series #6: Chi White Sox at Cleveland, Fri 8/4-Sun 8/6
Trend: UNDER the total is 11-2 (84.6%, +8.8 units) in the L13 games between the White Sox & Guardians in Cleveland
The R.O.I. on this trend is 67.7%
System Match: UNDER
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
BALTIMORE
LETDOWN after series vs. TORONTO: 6-18 (25.0%) -10.6 units, ROI: -44.2%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/4 vs. NY Mets
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
COLORADO
MOMENTUM after series vs. SAN DIEGO: 16-10 (61.5%) 10.75 units, ROI: 41.3%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/4 at St Louis
System Match: COLORADO
SAN DIEGO
MOMENTUM after series vs. COLORADO: 17-9 (65.4%) 9.75 units, ROI: 37.5%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/4 vs. LA Dodgers
System Match: SAN DIEGO