VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, September 29
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Friday, September 29, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS, DETROIT, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, OAKLAND, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, HOUSTON
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday, September 24, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 164-104 record, but for -86.8 units. This is an R.O.I. of -32.4%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 140-56 for +16.73 units as of Monday 9/25. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season has fallen recently but remains at +8.5%.
System Matches: ATLANTA
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 328-334 for +70.05 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, OAKLAND, HOUSTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 231-160 for +15.43 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 3.9%.
System Matches: ATLANTA, DETROIT, BALTIMORE
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE COLORADO
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE WASHINGTON, FADE NY YANKEES, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE TEXAS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and a R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE DETROIT, FADE TORONTO, FADE ATLANTA, FADE COLORADO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 809-687 (54.1%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +28.95 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.9%.
System Matches: ARIZONA, LA ANGELS, BALTIMORE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 69-57 outright (+4.75 units, ROI: 3.8%).
System Matches: BOSTON
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 166-82 (+19.20 units, ROI: 7.7%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: BALTIMORE
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 53-53 (-21.40 units, ROI: -20.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON (+37)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+23), LA DODGERS (+32), NY YANKEES (+35), SAN DIEGO (+36), MINNESOTA (+19), ARIZONA (+28)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY-TORONTO OVER 7.5 (+1.0), TEXAS-SEATTLE OVER 7.5 (+0.66), SAN DIEGO-CHICAGO WHITE SOX OVER 8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON-ARIZONA UNDER 9.5 (-1.07)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) MIAMI (82-76) at (902) PITTSBURGH (75-84)
Trend: Miami leads season series (3-1)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami trending UNDER against NL Central/West (23-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER at HOME (44-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(903) PHILADELPHIA (89-70) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (72-86)
Trend: Philadelphia has nothing to play for (clinched first wild card)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia slight UNDER at NIGHT (42-47 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (26-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM not great at NIGHT (46-57, -22.33 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
(905) WASHINGTON (69-90) at (906) ATLANTA (103-56)
Trend: Washington better on the ROAD (35-43, +16.77 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not great at NIGHT (37-58, -3.14 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Atlanta leads season series (7-3 record)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at HOME (46-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(907) CHICAGO-NL (82-77) at (908) MILWAUKEE (90-69)
Trend: Chicago fighting for playoff spot
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago trending OVER in division (27-19 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (69-44, +18.83 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER at NIGHT (41-50 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(909) CINCINNATI (81-78) at (910) ST LOUIS (69-90)
Trend: Cincinnati fighting for playoff spot
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati good on the ROAD (43-35, +17.12 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (41-65, -31.11 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight OVER at HOME (40-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (98-61) at (912) SAN FRANCISCO (78-81)
Trend: LAD trending OVER on the ROAD (50-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (74-40, +12.04 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (37-54 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Francisco good at HOME (44-34 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
(913) CLEVELAND (75-84) at (914) DETROIT (76-83)
Trend: Cleveland horrible against LH starters (23-34, -20.31 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER in division (13-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit trending OVER at HOME (41-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit not as good at NIGHT (40-49 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
(915) BOSTON (76-83) at (916) BALTIMORE (100-59)
Trend: Boston trending OVER on the ROAD (42-34 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston good against LH starters (23-18, +3.68 units)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Baltimore good at NIGHT (66-38, +25.76 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore already clinched number one seed
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
(917) TAMPA BAY (97-62) at (918) TORONTO (88-71)
Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (23-10, +8.78 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on the ROAD (33-39 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at NIGHT (36-52 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good record vs RH starters (68-57)
System Match: TORONTO
(919) NEW YORK-AL (81-78) at (920) KANSAS CITY (54-105)
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (51-52, -7.52 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY trending UNDER on the ROAD (32-42 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Kansas City trending OVER at HOME (41-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Kansas City not as bad against LH starters (13-27 record)
(921) OAKLAND (49-110) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (71-88)
Trend: Oakland trending UNDER in division (20-29 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Oakland slightly better at NIGHT (35-59, -0.96 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: LAA bad at HOME (36-42, -17.12 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA trending OVER against LH starters (22-14 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(923) TEXAS (89-70) at (924) SEATTLE (86-73)
Trend: Texas dominating season series (8-2 record)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER at NIGHT (54-44 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle more OVER at NIGHT (58-45 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle good record at HOME (43-35)
System Match: SEATTLE
(925) SAN DIEGO (79-80) at (926) CHICAGO-AL (61-98)
Trend: San Diego bad against RH starters (51-61, -32.10 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego good against AL teams (25-18, +0.48 units)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: Chicago not good at HOME (31-47, -17.43 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago slight UNDER at NIGHT (43-48 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(927) MINNESOTA (85-74) at (928) COLORADO (58-101)
Trend: Minnesota slight UNDER against NL teams (17-24 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota decent against LH starters (20-16 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Colorado trending UNDER at NIGHT (45-51 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado not great record against AL teams (17-26, -1.41 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(929) HOUSTON (87-72) at (930) ARIZONA (84-75)
Trend: Houston better on the ROAD (48-30, +13.15 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at NIGHT (59-47 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Arizona good with RHP Zac Gallen starting (won 6 of L9)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona more UNDER at HOME (32-41 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO MORE HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS (in the regular season)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
MIAMI
LETDOWN after series vs. NY METS: 8-17 (32%) -8.23 units, ROI: -32.9%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/29 at Pittsburgh
System Matches: FADE MIAMI
SAN DIEGO
MOMENTUM after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 16-10 (61.5%) 7.5 units, ROI: 28.8%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/29 at Chicago White Sox
System Matches: SAN DIEGO