VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, September 11
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 11, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, TORONTO, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TAMPA BAY, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO, ATLANTA (both games)
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday, September 11, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 144-97 record, but for -87.96 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.5%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Match: FADE SEATTLE
BACK big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 133-47 for +32.89 units as of Monday, September 11. This comes after a 7-3 performance last week. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season is +18.3%! Since my introduction of this system four weeks ago, the results are 29-6 for +14.24 units.
System Match: HOUSTON
Better bullpen underdog teams remain solid wagers after another massive week
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 310-314 for +68.3 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.9%!
System Matches: ARIZONA, NY YANKEES
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 213-225 for -39.56 units, an R.O.I. of -9.0%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 83-108 for -27.01 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.1%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TEXAS, FADE LA ANGELS
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 217-144 for +23.71 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 6.6%.
System Matches: TORONTO, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since September 4, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 109-74 for +18.71 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 10.2% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-games – CHICAGO WHITE SOX
3-games – SEATTLE
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1433-1338 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE TEXAS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE ARIZONA, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE LA ANGELS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE TORONTO, FADE BOSTON, FADE HOUSTON, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 799-673 (54.3%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +36.48 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.4%.
System Matches: NY METS, MINNESOTA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 68-54 outright (+6.79 units, ROI: 5.6%).
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 123-102 run (+44.98 units, ROI: 20%).
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 93-90 (+16.84 units, ROI: 9.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: COLORADO
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SAN DIEGO (+17), OAKLAND (+46)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH (+30), MILWAUKEE (+28), CHICAGO CUBS (+29), SEATTLE (+20), BALTIMORE (+31)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI-MILWAUKEE OVER 7 (+0.76), CHICAGO CUBS-COLORADO OVER 11 (+0.6), TAMPA BAY-MINNESOTA (+1.01)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO-LA DODGERS UNDER 10 (-0.85)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) ATLANTA (93-49) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (78-64) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Atlanta won both games this season in Philadelphia
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Philadelphia better during the DAY (35-22, +6.20 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia does happen to be profitable as HOME ML underdog (5-5 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
(905) ATLANTA (93-49) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (78-64) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (67-29, +15.95 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at NIGHT (54-40 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (43-42, -12.83 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
(903) WASHINGTON (64-79) at (904) PITTSBURGH (66-77)
Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (35-48, +4.62 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington better on the ROAD (33-36, +20.13 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (50-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh heavy OVER against LH starters (28-16 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(907) ARIZONA (75-69) at (908) NEW YORK-NL (65-77)
Trend: Arizona pretty good record on the ROAD (37-34, +5.89 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona more UNDER against LH starters (17-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (22-42 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(909) MIAMI (74-69) at (910) MILWAUKEE (79-63)
Trend: Miami trending UNDER against NL Central/West (20-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Milwaukee not as good against LH starters (17-22 record / 12-24 O/U)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE, PLAY UNDER
Trend: Milwaukee better at HOME (40-28, +1.82 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(911) CHICAGO-NL (77-67) at (912) COLORADO (51-91)
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER in NL East/West matchups (19-32 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado slightly better against LH starters (19-25 record)
System Match: COLORADO
Trend: Colorado leaning UNDER against LH starters (17-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(913) SAN DIEGO (67-77) at (914) LOS ANGELES-NL (87-55)
Trend: San Diego bad against RH starters (43-58, -36.44 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: LAD good against San Diego this season (8-2 record, 3-0 at HOME)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (65-35, +12.25 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(915) TEXAS (78-64) at (916) TORONTO (80-63)
Trend: Texas not as good on the ROAD (33-34, -7.06 units)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: Texas good in AL East/Central games (33-21, +5.58 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at HOME (24-39 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good against AL Central/West (38-22, +4.43 units)
System Match: TORONTO
(917) NEW YORK-AL (71-72) at (918) BOSTON (73-70)
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (43-49, -12.87 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Boston is dominating series in 2023 (8-1 record)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston more OVER against RH starters (60-42 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(919) KANSAS CITY (44-100) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (55-88)
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (24-64, -31.45 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City good with RHP Brady Singer starting (won 5 of L7)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Chicago more UNDER in divisional games (17-27 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(921) TAMPA BAY (88-56) at (922) MINNESOTA (75-68)
Trend: Tampa Bay good vs. AL Central/West (37-21, +3.58 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER on the ROAD (29-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota profitable as HOME ML underdog (5-5 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota trending OVER vs. AL East/West (32-22 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(923) OAKLAND (44-99) at (924) HOUSTON (82-62)
Trend: Oakland trending OVER against LH starters (26-16 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston dominating the season series (9-1 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston slight OVER at HOME (41-30 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(925) LOS ANGELES-AL (67-77) at (926) SEATTLE (79-64)
Trend: LAA trending OVER in division (25-14 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle good with RHP Logan Gilbert starting (10-2 in L12)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle more OVER at NIGHT (51-40 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(927) ST LOUIS (63-80) at (928) BALTIMORE (90-52)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (36-58, -31.66 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight UNDER on the ROAD (32-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Baltimore good at HOME (42-26, +7.64 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good at NIGHT (58-32, +25.24 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(929) CLEVELAND (68-76) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (73-70)
Trend: Cleveland not great in interleague play (18-23, -9.25 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER a couple of ways (34-46 O/U at NIGHT, 28-42 O/U at HOME, 45-54 O/U against RH starters)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Francisco better at HOME (41-31 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 9/18)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
BALTIMORE
LETDOWN after series vs. BOSTON: 8-18 (30.8%) -9.25 units, ROI: -35.6%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/11 vs. St Louis
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
LETDOWN after series vs. DETROIT: 8-18 (30.8%) -10.2 units, ROI: -39.2%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/11 vs. Kansas City
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
OAKLAND
LETDOWN after series vs. TEXAS: 9-18 (33.3%) -11.58 units, ROI: -42.8%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/11 at Houston
System Match: FADE OAKLAND