VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Saturday, August 19
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Saturday, August 19, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or better:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, ST LOUIS, ATLANTA, SAN DIEGO (DH Games 1&2), LA DODGERS (DH Games 1&2), NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY (DH Games 1&2), MILWAUKEE, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, CHI WHITE SOX
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday 8/13 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 109-79 record, but for -80.97 units. This is an R.O.I. of -43.1%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 48-54 for -72.94 units! This angle was 3-5 last week and lost -7.12 units! This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -71.5%!
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a rare off week of 5-9 (-2.84 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 269-269 for +64.52 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 12%!
System Matches: ST LOUIS, MILWAUKEE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 182-183 for -35.48 units, an R.O.I. of -9.7%. After a 0-3 result (-3.18 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-87 for -20.69 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -13.3%.
System Matches: 2-game: FADE CINCINNATI 3-game: FADE SEATTLE, NY METS, WASHINGTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 183-120 for +26.97 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 8.9%.
System Matches: ATLANTA
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/7 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 184-137 for +12.86 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a big 6-1 week and have now gone 90-57 for +23.23 units. The R.O.I. for the season jumped back up to 15.8% after that surge this past seven days.
System Matches: 2-Game – TORONTO, CHI WHITE SOX 3-game – NY YANKEES, ST LOUIS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 303-269 (53.0%) for +48.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.4%.
System Match: LA DODGERS
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1430-1334 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -166.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE COLORADO, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE MIAMI
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1677 (43.3%) for -167.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO, FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE DETROIT, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE SEATTLE, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE ARIZONA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE TEXAS, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE COLORADO, FADE LA ANGELS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 785-657 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.74 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, HOUSTON
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 233-182 (56.3%) for +51.2 units and an R.O.I. of 12.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match: OAKLAND
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 45-46 (-18.3 units, ROI: -20.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON (17), SEATTLE (18), CINCINNATI (29)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA (37), LA DODGERS-Gm1 (18), BALTIMORE (60), TAMPA BAY Gm2 (19), LA DODGERS Gm2 (18), SAN DIEGO Gm2 (56)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE-HOUSTON OVER 8 (+0.71), TAMPA BAY-LA ANGELS Gm1 OVER 8.5 (+1.05), MILWAUKEE-TEXAS OVER 8 (+0.6), PITTSBURGH-MINNESOTA OVER 8.5 (+0.84)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI-LA DODGERS UNDER 9.5 (-1.11), TORONTO-CINCINNATI UNDER 10 (-0.89)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for each team.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (66-56) at (952) WASHINGTON (56-67)
Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (30-19, +6.07 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (28-35, +1.35 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington good during the DAY (27-25, +16.24 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
(953) NEW YORK-NL (57-66) at (954) ST LOUIS (54-69)
Trend: NYM not good against NL Central/West (26-29, -12.83 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: St Louis trending OVER at HOME (32-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (31-49, -29.15 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
(955) SAN FRANCISCO (64-58) at (956) ATLANTA (79-42)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (39-30, +4.52 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (26-41 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Atlanta good against the NL (53-22, +16.90 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at HOME (35-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at NIGHT (44-34 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(961) BOSTON (64-58) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (60-62)
Trend: Boston is 6-1 against NY YANKEES this season
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: NYY is good during the DAY (27-16, +8.55 units)
System Match: NY YANKEES
Trend: Season series is trending UNDER (2-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(963) DETROIT (55-67) at (964) CLEVELAND (59-64)
Trend: Detroit good in division (23-15, +11.57 units)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: Detroit-Cleveland series is on 7-1 UNDER stretch this season
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER in division (9-29 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
(965) SEATTLE (67-55) at (966) HOUSTON (70-53)
Trend: Seattle trending OVER in NIGHT games (43-36 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle good against AL West/Houston (20-11, +5.77 units in division, 6-2 vs Houston)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Houston not as good bet at HOME (33-27, -7.12 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(967) BALTIMORE (75-47) at (968) OAKLAND (34-88)
Trend: Baltimore good against AL teams (56-31, +25.58 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER against AL teams (45-36 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland trending OVER against AL Central/East (28-13 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(971) KANSAS CITY (40-84) at (972) CHICAGO-NL (62-59)
Trend: Kansas City decent bet during the DAY (18-29, -3.00 units)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Cubs trending OVER in multiple ways (34-25 O/U at HOME, 24-16 O/U against AL teams, 43-38 O/U against RH starters)
System Match: OVER
(973) MILWAUKEE (66-57) at (974) TEXAS (72-50)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (50-37, +8.12 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER as ML underdog (18-32-2 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Texas trending OVER in HOME games (36-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good as ML favorite (53-30, +6.35 units)
System Match: TEXAS
(975) TORONTO (67-56) at (976) CINCINNATI (64-59)
Trend: Toronto good against NL teams (24-14, +6.46 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER in other ways (15-21 O/U against NL, 23-44 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cincinnati good against AL teams (19-11, +10.00 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trends UNDER at HOME (26-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(977) PITTSBURGH (54-68) at (978) MINNESOTA (64-59)
Trend: Pittsburgh good OVER team as ML underdog (49-37-4, +8.40 units)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (41-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh not good against AL teams (14-24, -9.65 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Trend: Minnesota trending UNDER against NL teams (12-19 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(979) CHICAGO-AL (48-74) at (980) COLORADO (47-75)
Trend: Chicago bad against NL teams (12-23, -8.46 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (29-53, -13.40 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(981) ARIZONA (62-61) at (982) SAN DIEGO (59-64) (DH)
Trend: Arizona not good during the DAY (22-25, -5.31 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (40-36, +4.96 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (37-47, -29.09 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
(983) MIAMI (64-59) at (984) LOS ANGELES-NL (74-47) (DH)
Trend: Miami not as good as ML underdog (22-34, -5.00 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami non-divisional games trending UNDER (38-50 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAD not good during the DAY (17-19, -11.30 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good against RH starters (54-29, +12.80 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: Miami not as good as ML underdog (22-34, -5.00 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami non-divisional games trending UNDER (38-50 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (57-28, +14.30 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (20-18, -9.60 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
(985) TAMPA BAY (74-50) at (986) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-63) (DH)
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on the ROAD (25-32 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA better against RH starters (48-44, +2.07 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (14-7, +4.60 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 8/21)