VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Saturday, September 23
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Saturday, September 23, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI, SAN DIEGO, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, HOUSTON
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday, September 17 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 150-101 record, but for -91.62 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.5%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE LA DODGERS, FADE MINNESOTA
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 135-52 for +22.33 units as of Monday, September 18. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season is +11.9%!
System Matches: HOUSTON
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 320-323 for +71.14 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%! Last week’s better bullpen dogs compiled a 10-9 record for +2.84 units.
System Matches: SEATTLE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 226-235 for -32.21 units, an R.O.I. of -6.9%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 89-114 for -25.47 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.5%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE CLEVELAND
3+ games – FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE TEXAS, FADE KANSAS CITY
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 221-152 for +15.57 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 4.2%.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, MINNESOTA
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since September 11, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have now gone 112-78 for +15.75 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 8.3% after the past seven days.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, BALTIMORE
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 308-284 (52%) for +37.59 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.3%.
System Matches: MIAMI
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE CLEVELAND
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE COLORADO, FADE ARIZONA, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE DETROIT, FADE ST LOUIS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE CINCINNATI, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE TEXAS, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE HOUSTON, FADE OAKLAND
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 407-337 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +29.17 units, for a R.O.I. of 3.9%.
System Matches: BOSTON, LA DODGERS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 97-96 (+16.02 units, ROI: 8.3%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: COLORADO, ST LOUIS
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 164-80 (+20.62 units, ROI: 8.5%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 46-39 (+9.4 units, ROI: 11.1%) in their last 85 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 145-91 in their last 236 tries (+26.44 units, ROI: 11.2%).
System Matches: SAN DIEGO
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 14-42 (-15.9 units, ROI: -28.4%) in their last 56 tries.
System Matches: FADE KANSAS CITY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE (+17), MINNESOTA (+39), BOSTON (+30)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO-CHICAGO CUBS OVER 8.5 (+0.5), NY METS-PHILADELPHIA OVER 7.5 (+0.8), LA ANGELS-MINNESOTA OVER 7.5 (+0.8), CHICAGO WHITE SOX-BOSTON OVER 8.5 (+0.6), BALTIMORE-CLEVELAND OVER 8 (+1.1)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(903) COLORADO (56-97) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (80-74)
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (36-69, -18.01 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado trending UNDER on the ROAD (32-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago good at HOME (43-36 record)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago heavy UNDER against NL East/West (21-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(905) NEW YORK-NL (71-83) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (85-69)
Trend: NYM not good on the ROAD (32-47, -21.94 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM more UNDER in division (17-25 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: HOME team is 7-1 in season series
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia better against LH starters (29-20, +4.29 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
(907) MILWAUKEE (88-66) at (908) MIAMI (79-75)
Trend: Milwaukee not good against LH starters (20-24, -11.23 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee more UNDER against LH starters (15-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami heavy UNDER against NL Central/West (22-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami better at HOME (44-35 record)
System Match: MIAMI
(909) PITTSBURGH (73-81) at (910) CINCINNATI (79-76)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER at NIGHT (56-35 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh leads season series (7-4 record)
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (52-42, +17.14 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending UNDER at HOME (33-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(911) ST LOUIS (67-87) at (912) SAN DIEGO (76-78)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (39-64, -33.07 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis more OVER against NL West/East (34-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER at HOME (29-44 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego not great vs. NL Central/East (26-36, -24.02 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
(913) SAN FRANCISCO (77-77) at (914) LOS ANGELES-NL (94-59)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (47-42 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (71-39, +11.22 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: HOME team is 2-6 in the season series
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at HOME (51-28, +5.34 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (69-85) at (916) MINNESOTA (82-72)
Trend: LAA slightly better during the DAY (25-24, +0.66 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA slight OVER on the ROAD (42-32 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Minnesota trending OVER against AL West/East (35-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(917) DETROIT (72-82) at (918) OAKLAND (47-107)
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER during the DAY (28-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit not good against AL West/East (21-41 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Trend: Oakland not good during the DAY (12-50, -31.58 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland heavy OVER against AL Central/East (38-17 O/U!)
System Match: OVER
(919) TORONTO (86-68) at (920) TAMPA BAY (94-61)
Trend: Toronto is decent on the ROAD (45-34, +3.00 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER against RH starters (52-61 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (49-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (22-9, +8.90 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
(921) CHICAGO-AL (58-96) at (922) BOSTON (76-78)
Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (21-41 record)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (37-55 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Boston trending OVER against AL Central/West (35-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston not great against RH starters (53-60, -14.08 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
(923) BALTIMORE (95-59) at (924) CLEVELAND (74-81)
Trend: Baltimore good on the ROAD (50-29, +27.73 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good against AL Central/West (41-21 record)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER on the ROAD (45-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER a couple of ways (41-56 O/U at NIGHT, 23-29 O/U against LH starters)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland bad against LH starters (22-33, -20.31 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
(925) SEATTLE (84-69) at (926) TEXAS (85-68)
Trend: Seattle good at NIGHT (56-43 record)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER against LH starters (16-21 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Texas dominating season series (6-1 record)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER at HOME (46-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(927) KANSAS CITY (52-102) at (928) HOUSTON (85-69)
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (30-64, -22.91 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Houston not good bet at HOME (39-40, -27.34 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at NIGHT (57-45 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY (next one Tuesday 9/26)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Tuesday 9/26)