VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Saturday, September 9
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Saturday, September 9, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, TORONTO, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, TEXAS, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%.
In games this season through Wednesday 9/6 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 136-93 record, but for -87.67 units. This is an R.O.I. of -38.3%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two. Last week this angle was actually 8-1 for +4.9 units however, a rare winning week for these high-priced teams.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE DETROIT
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 130-47 for +29.69 units as of Friday 9/9. This coming after an 8-2 performance last week. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +16.8%! Since my introduction of this system two weeks ago, the results are 23-4 for +12.64 units.
System Matches: ATLANTA, TORONTO, TEXAS
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a fine week of 15-10 (+8.26 units), moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 303-303 for +71.76 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.8%!
System Matches: CINCINNATI, BALTIMORE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. That strategy fared well again last week. After a 7-8 (-1.1 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 205-212 for -38.86 units, an R.O.I. of -9.3%. After a 3-4 result (-1.72 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 79-102 for -25.77 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.2%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE OAKLAND
3-games – FADE ARIZONA
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 211-139 for +25.03 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 7.2%. These better bullpen teams had another profitable week, +2.59 units on a 13-7 performance.
System Match: BALTIMORE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/28 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 219-164 for +13.43 units after a 12-6 (+5.1 units) record the last seven days. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a winning 5-1 week and have now gone 106-69 for +24.41 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 13.9% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-games – CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES
3+ games – TEXAS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 305-278 (52.4%) for +40.32 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 7.1%.
System Matches: BALTIMORE, HOUSTON
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1433-1338 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE NY METS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE WASHINGTON, FADE TORONTO, FADE ATLANTA, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 797-670 (54.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +39.18 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.6%.
System Matches: BOSTON, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 403-330 (55%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +35.42 units, for an R.O.I. of 4.8%.
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 273-127 (68.3%) for +52.58 units and an R.O.I. of 13.2%!
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 238-193 (55.2%) for +44.72 units and an R.O.I. of 10.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match: NY YANKEES
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI (+39), PITTSBURGH (+39), COLORADO (+40), KANSAS CITY (+29), BALTIMORE (+53), OAKLAND (+23), MILWAUKEE (+28)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND (+46), HOUSTON (+30)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KANSAS CITY-TORONTO OVER 8.5 (+0.5),
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI-PHILADELPHIA UNDER 9 (-0.7), ST LOUIS-CINCINNATI UNDER 10.5 (-0.6), PITTSBURGH-ATLANTA UNDER 10.5 (-0.6), SEATTLE-TAMPA BAY UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), BALTIMORE-BOSTON UNDER 10 (-0.8), CLEVELAND-LA ANGELS UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), MILWAUKEE-NY YANKEES UNDER 9 (-0.6)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) ARIZONA (74-68) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (76-66)
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER against LH starters (17-25 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago good at HOME with LHP Justin Steele starting (12-2 record)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago trending OVER during the DAY (34-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (86-54) at (904) WASHINGTON (63-78)
Trend: LAD good against RH starters (63-33, +16.27 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD trending OVER multiple ways (25-14 O/U during the DAY, 33-26 O/U against NL East/Central)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (29-42, -4.47 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington better during the DAY (29-30, +14.84 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
(905) MIAMI (73-68) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (77-63)
Trend: Miami slight OVER in divisional games (22-17 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (42-42, -13.83 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES is (MIA 6 – PHI 5)
(907) ST LOUIS (62-79) at (908) CINCINNATI (73-70)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (35-58, -32.66 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: Cincinnati trending OVER at NIGHT (46-39 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (47-39, +15.25 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
(909) PITTSBURGH (65-76) at (910) ATLANTA (92-48)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER at NIGHT (49-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER against NL East/West (30-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER a couple of ways (41-28 O/U at HOME, 53-40 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (66-28, +17.20 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
(911) COLORADO (51-89) at (912) SAN FRANCISCO (71-70)
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (32-64, -19.40 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND SECTION BELOW
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (43-37 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (32-46 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(913) KANSAS CITY (44-98) at (914) TORONTO (78-63)
Trend: Kansas City slightly better during the DAY (20-34 record)
Trend: Kansas City slight OVER against AL East/West (30-21 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Toronto trending Under a couple of ways (20-35 O/U vs. AL Central/West, 29-48 O/U at NIGHT, 24-37 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good vs. AL Central/West (36-22 record)
System Match: TORONTO
(915) SEATTLE (79-62) at (916) TAMPA BAY (86-56)
Trend: Seattle trending OVER against AL East/Central (36-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER during the DAY (20-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (48-25, +8.78 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay good against AL West/Central (35-21 record)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
(917) BALTIMORE (89-51) at (918) BOSTON (72-69)
Trend: Baltimore good in divisional games (27-15, +15.23 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER on the ROAD (40-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston trending OVER in divisional games (23-14 O/U)
System Match: BOSTON
(919) CHICAGO-AL (55-86) at (920) DETROIT (64-77)
Trend: Chicago bad as ML underdog (28-60, -22.15 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (33-50-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit slight OVER at NIGHT (39-34 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit good in divisional games (28-16, +15.62 units)
System Match: DETROIT
(921) OAKLAND (44-97) at (922) TEXAS (76-64)
Trend: Oakland slightly better at NIGHT (32-51, +0.63 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD series this season is (TEX 7 – OAK 4)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER in HOME games (42-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas pretty good record at NIGHT (45-42)
System Match: TEXAS
(923) CLEVELAND (68-74) at (924) LOS ANGELES-AL (65-77)
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER at NIGHT (37-52 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA better against AL Central/East (28-25, +2.00 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA not good at NIGHT (41-56, -24.63 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: INTERESTING TREND BELOW
(925) MILWAUKEE (78-62) at (926) NEW YORK-AL (70-71)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (61-40, +16.20 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (43-49, -12.87 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY slight UNDER a couple ways (34-37 O/U at HOME, 17-20 O/U vs NL teams, 37-52 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: UNDER
(927) NEW YORK-NL (64-76) at (928) MINNESOTA (74-67)
Trend: NYM not great in interleague play (18-26, -14.10 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER on the season (56-76 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota slight UNDER against NL teams (15-21 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(929) SAN DIEGO (67-75) at (930) HOUSTON (80-62)
Trend: San Diego actually pretty good record vs AL teams (22-16)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (43-56, -34.44 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: Houston not as good at HOME (35-35, -18.96 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Thu 9/7-Sun 9/10
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 13-2 (86.7%, +10.6 units) in the last 15 games between Cleveland & LA Angels
The R.O.I. on this trend is 70.7%
System Matches: LA ANGELS
Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 9/8-Mon 9/11
Trend: Colorado is 1-14 (6.7%, -12.35 units) in their last 15 games vs. San Francisco
The R.O.I. on this trend is -82.3%
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 9/11)