VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, August 27
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 27, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): CHICAGO CUBS, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE, NY METS, LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Saturday 8/26 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 123-90 record, but for -90.78 units. This is an R.O.I. of -42.6%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE TORONTO
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are 116-41 for +30.45 units as of Saturday 8/26. This comes after a 6-0 performance last week. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc., and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, etc., enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +19.4%!
System Matches: SEATTLE, BALTIMORE
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 56-56 for -69.02 units! However, this angle was 5-1 last week and won 3.1 units, a rare winning week. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -61.6%!
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ’em). After a 7-4 performance the last couple of days, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 283-288 for +63.08 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11%!
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO, CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After an 11-10 (+2.97 units) week, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 193-195 for -34.51 units, an R.O.I. of -8.9%. After a 4-6 result (-0.75 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 74-93 for -20.44 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.2%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE LA ANGELS
3+ games – FADE WASHINGTON, FADE ATLANTA
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the two-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 194-128 for +24.79 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 7.7%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, -3.33 units on a 5-5 performance.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, BALTIMORE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/14 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 195-150 for +8.36 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a negative 4-6 week and have now gone 96-63 for +22.53 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 14.5% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – SAN FRANCISCO
3+ games – MIAMI, NY METS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 305-270 (53.1%) for +49.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.5%.
System Match: DETROIT
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1432-1337 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE SEATTLE, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE HOUSTON
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND, FADE NY YANKEES, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE ST LOUIS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO, FADE SEATTLE, FADE BOSTON, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE ARIZONA
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 269-124 (68.5%) for +55.30 units and an R.O.I. of 14.1%!
System Match: SEATTLE
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 122-101 run (+44.98 units, ROI: 20.2%).
System Match: NY METS
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 114-79 (+19.98 units, ROI: 10.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 140-86 in their last 226 tries (+27.68 units, ROI: 12.2%).
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 46-47 (-18.65 units, ROI: -20.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON (+22), CLEVELAND (+38), MINNESOTA (+20), KANSAS CITY (+22)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS (+17), ATLANTA (+32), HOUSTON (+33), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+21), NY METS (+29), BALTIMORE (+31)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: COLORADO-BALTIMORE OVER (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NONE
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) ST LOUIS (56-74) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (71-58)
Trend: St Louis slight UNDER on the ROAD (28-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: St Louis better during the DAY (25-20, -1.65 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (31-20, +5.65 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
(953) CHICAGO-NL (68-61) at (954) PITTSBURGH (58-72)
Trend: Cubs trending OVER in divisional play (22-13 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cubs have won 9 of L10 against Pittsburgh (8-1 this season)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER as HOME ML underdog (33-12 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(955) WASHINGTON (61-69) at (956) MIAMI (65-65)
Trend: Washington good bet on the ROAD (31-33, +21.59 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington good during the DAY (29-26, +18.84 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Miami divisional games trending OVER (19-14 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(957) SAN DIEGO (61-69) at (958) MILWAUKEE (72-57)
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER a couple ways (25-31 O/U on the ROAD, 17-25 O/U during the DAY)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego not great against RH starters (38-51, -33.94 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego not as good against NL East/Central (23-31, -21.10 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: Milwaukee good against RH starters (55-37, +14.87 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee bad against NL East/West (22-28, -7.00 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
(959) ATLANTA (84-44) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (66-63)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (58-24, +17.27 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER multiple ways (24-30 O/U against NL Central/East, 28-43 O/U at NIGHT, 24-39 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Francisco good at HOME (35-30 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
(961) CINCINNATI (68-63) at (962) ARIZONA (68-62)
Trend: Cincinnati decent against NL East/West (30-27, +5.98 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati not as good during the DAY (24-28 record / 22-30 O/U)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI, UNDER
Trend: Arizona not as good during the DAY (23-25, -3.86 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at HOME (25-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(963) CLEVELAND (61-69) at (964) TORONTO (71-59)
Trend: Cleveland bad against LH starters (19-29, -19.30 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Toronto good against AL Central/West (33-20, +3.47 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER multiple ways (21-36 O/U at HOME, 17-34 O/U against AL Central/West)
System Match: UNDER
(965) HOUSTON (73-58) at (966) DETROIT (59-70)
Trend: Houston better on the ROAD (38-27, +7.26 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston slight UNDER in DAY games (20-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER in DAY games (26-33 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(967) NEW YORK-AL (62-67) at (968) TAMPA BAY (79-52)
Trend: NYY better during the DAY (27-20, +2.60 units)
System Match: NY YANKEES
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (44-23, +7.00 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (40-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (18-7, +8.60 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
(969) OAKLAND (38-92) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (51-79)
Trend: Oakland trending OVER multiple ways (34-15 O/U against AL Central/East, 37-24 O/U on the ROAD, 28-22 O/U during DAY)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland bad during the DAY (9-43, -28.00 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Chicago trends OVER as ML favorite (29-17-2 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago is bad against AL East/West (19-38, -20.13 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
(971) TEXAS (73-56) at (972) MINNESOTA (67-63)
Trend: Texas trending UNDER on the ROAD (28-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota not often a HOME ML underdog (3-5 record)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota slight UNDER against LH starters (13-17 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(973) KANSAS CITY (41-90) at (974) SEATTLE (73-56)
Trend: Kansas City slightly better during the DAY (19-32, -5.10 units)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Seattle good with RHP Luis Castillo starting (Won last 5)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle trending OVER against AL Central/East (36-21 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(975) LOS ANGELES-AL (63-67) at (976) NEW YORK-NL (59-71)
Trend: LAA slight UNDER against NL teams (17-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA not as good against NL teams (18-24, -12.51 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA not good against LH starters (12-20, -15.43 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (20-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(977) LOS ANGELES-NL (79-49) at (978) BOSTON (69-61)
Trend: LAD good against RH starters (58-30, +14.80 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good during the DAY (19-20, -10.55 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD trending OVER in interleague games (28-8 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston not as good against NL teams (20-25, -9.65 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
(979) COLORADO (48-81) at (980) BALTIMORE (81-48)
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (30-58, -17.40 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Baltimore good against LH starters (30-15, +14.50 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good at HOME and during DAY (40-24, +10.02 units / 31-17, +18.14 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 8/28)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 8/28)