VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday 7/30
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Sunday, July 30, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, COLORADO, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Now, in games this season through Sunday, July 23, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 173-99 record, but for -56.44 units.
System Matches: FADE NY METS, FADE TORONTO, FADE SAN DIEGO
Better bullpen underdog teams have been strong out of the second-half gate
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 233-236 for +54.47 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.6%!
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 164-157 for -31.59 units, an R.O.I. of -9.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 60-76 for -20.11 units. The R.O.I. on that system is -14.8%, the exact same figure our latest set of results netted.
2-Game Winning Streaks:
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE OAKLAND
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 157-94 for +36.95 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 14.7%.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
When on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 157-119 for +12.5 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 77-48 for +24.47 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 19.6%.
2 Game Losing Streaks:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND
3+ Game Losing Streaks:
System Matches: MINNESOTA, COLORADO
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 302-268 (53.4%) for +48.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.4%.
System Match: COLORADO
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE HOUSTON, FADE ATLANTA, FADE OAKLAND
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE LA ANGELS, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE CINCINNATI, FADE TEXAS, FADE BOSTON
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE TORONTO, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE NY METS, FADE HOUSTON
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Match: LA DODGERS
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 399-324 (55.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +38.97 units, for a R.O.I. of 5.4%.
System Matches: MIAMI, ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 267-123 (68.5%) for +55.48 units and an R.O.I. of 14.2%!
System Matches: ATLANTA, NY METS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 60-43 outright (+12.89 units, ROI: 12.5%).
System Match: MINNESOTA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE (+28), CHICAGO CUBS (+32)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+23), TORONTO (+15), BALTIMORE (+22), MINNESOTA (+30), COLORADO (+33), SEATTLE (+19)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY YANKEES-BALTIMORE OVER 8.5 (+0.5), MINNESOTA-KANSAS CITY OVER 9 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA-PITTSBURGH UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), MILWAUKEE-ATLANTA UNDER 11 (-0.5)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for every team.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (56-48) at (952) PITTSBURGH (46-58)
Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (27-17, +5.70 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia worse against NL (34-35, -12.35 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Pittsburgh better against NL West/East (22-21, +6.60 units)
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh UNDER in DAY games (18-24 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(953) MILWAUKEE (57-48) at (954) ATLANTA (66-36)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (42-31, +10.05 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee worse against NL East/West (17-21, -2.55 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL Central (12-2 this year)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta OVER in HOME games (32-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(955) WASHINGTON (44-61) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (49-55)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (24-28, +13.05 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington better bet during DAY (22-23, +11.10 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: NYM good record against RH starters (38-30, -2.25 units)
System Match: NY METS
Trend: NYM UNDER in HOME games (15-30 O/U, including UNDER in 7 of L9)
System Match: UNDER
(957) CHICAGO-NL (53-51) at (958) ST LOUIS (46-60)
Trend: Chicago good against LH starters (19-13, +5.80 units)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: St. Louis better during the DAY (22-19, -2.60 units)
System Match: ST LOUIS
Trend: St. Louis OVER in HOME games (29-19 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(959) CINCINNATI (57-49) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (59-44)
Trend: Cincinnati better against NL East/West (27-20, +12.80 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati not as good during the DAY (22-23, +1.05 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati UNDER during the DAY (20-25 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAD not as good during the DAY (14-18, -12.80 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD better against RH starters (47-27, +8.65 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(961) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-51) at (962) TORONTO (59-46)
Trend: LAA OVER on ROAD (27-21 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA better against AL East/Central teams (25-19, +4.30 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA better against RH starters (43-33, +6.90 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: Toronto UNDER in HOME games (16-29 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(963) NEW YORK-AL (55-49) at (964) BALTIMORE (63-41)
Trend: NYY not as good in NIGHT games (29-36, -13.00 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Baltimore better against AL competition (48-27, +21.00 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Orioles OVER in AL games (40-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(965) TAMPA BAY (63-44) at (966) HOUSTON (59-46)
Trend: Tampa Bay not as good on ROAD (26-25, -6.35 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on ROAD (20-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Houston not as good for bettors at HOME (28-24, -9.35 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(967) MINNESOTA (54-52) at (968) KANSAS CITY (31-75)
Trend: Minnesota better record against division (21-14, -2.15 units)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Kansas City better bet during DAY (15-27, -5.05 units)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
(969) CLEVELAND (52-53) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (43-63)
Trend: Cleveland UNDER in divisional games (8-24 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland better against RH starters (35-32, +0.60 units)
System Match: CLEVELAND
Trend: Chicago better in division (17-15, +0.60 units)
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
(971) DETROIT (47-58) at (972) MIAMI (56-49)
Trend: Detroit OVER against LH starters (17-7 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Miami good against AL competition (22-12, +12.80 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami UNDER outside of division play (31-43 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(973) OAKLAND (30-76) at (974) COLORADO (40-64)
Trend: Oakland horrible in DAY games (6-39, -29.40 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland better bet against NL teams (11-20, -2.10 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (24-46, -13.50 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(975) BOSTON (56-48) at (976) SAN FRANCISCO (57-48)
Trend: Boston worse against NL competition (18-21, -6.20 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
Trend: San Francisco not as good in DAY games (22-25, -8.75 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
(977) SEATTLE (53-51) at (978) ARIZONA (56-49)
Trend: Seattle more UNDER in DAY games (15-21 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona not as good during the DAY (20-22, -3.90 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
(979) TEXAS (60-45) at (980) SAN DIEGO (51-54)
Trend: Texas more OVER in interleague games (19-12 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good during the DAY (27-15, +7.75 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: San Diego better off against AL teams (18-13, -0.70 units)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego better against LH starters (20-16, -1.85 units)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Top head-to-head series trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled 20 MLB second half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #2: LA Angels at Toronto, Fri 7/28-Sun 7/30
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 4-12 (25%, -13.4 units) in the last 16 games between LA Angels & Toronto
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -83.75%
System Matches: FADE TORONTO
Team-specific momentum building/letdown angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY