VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, September 10
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Sunday, September 10, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, TEXAS, CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Wednesday 9/6 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 136-93 record, but for -87.67 units. This is an R.O.I. of -38.3%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two. Last week this angle was actually 8-1 for +4.9 units however, a rare winning week for these high-priced teams.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 130-47 for +29.69 units as of Friday 9/9. This coming after an 8-2 performance last week. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +16.8%! Since my introduction of this system two weeks ago, the results are 23-4 for +12.64 units.
System Match: TEXAS
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 63-61 for -73.57 units! This angle was 4-2 last week and again lost –0.45 units. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -59.3%!
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a fine week of 15-10 (+8.26 units), moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 303-303 for +71.76 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.8%!
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. That strategy fared well again last week. After a 7-8 (-1.1 units) week, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 205-212 for -38.86 units, an R.O.I. of -9.3%. After a 3-4 result (-1.72 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 79-102 for -25.77 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.2%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ST LOUIS
3+ games – FADE ARIZONA
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 211-139 for +25.03 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 7.2%. These better bullpen teams had another profitable week, +2.59 units on a 13-7 performance.
System Match: BALTIMORE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since August 28 when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 219-164 for +13.43 units after a 12-6 (+5.1 units) record the last 7 days. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a winning 5-1 week and have now gone 106-69 for +24.41 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 13.9% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 3-games – CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 306-279 (52.4%) for +39.52 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.8%.
System Match: NY YANKEES
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1433-1338 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE BOSTON, FADE MILWAUKEE
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE OAKLAND, FADE COLORADO, FADE CLEVELAND
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE LA ANGELS, FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE HOUSTON, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE TORONTO, FADE WASHINGTON, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE BOSTON
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 798-673 (54.3%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +35.48 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.4%.
System Match: NY YANKEES
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 403-331 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +34.07 units, for an R.O.I. of 4.6%.
System Matches: TEXAS, NY YANKEES
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH (+59), ST LOUIS (+30), OAKLAND (+36)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS (+20), DETROIT (+19), TORONTO (+39), CLEVELAND (+30)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: KANSAS CITY-TORONTO OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI-PHILADELPHIA UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), SAN DIEGO-HOUSTON UNDER 10 (-1.1)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) MIAMI (73-69) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (78-63)
Trend: Miami slight OVER in divisional games (23-17 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Philadelphia better during the DAY (35-21, +7.90 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES is (MIA 6 – PHI 6)
(953) PITTSBURGH (66-76) at (954) ATLANTA (92-49)
Trend: Pittsburgh not as good during the DAY (24-32, -3.91 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER against NL East/West (31-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER a couple of ways (42-28 O/U at HOME, 39-21 O/U vs NL Central/West)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (66-29, +14.95 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
(955) LOS ANGELES-NL (86-55) at (956) WASHINGTON (64-78)
Trend: LAD good against RH starters (63-34, +13.97 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD trending OVER multiple ways (25-14 O/U during the DAY, 34-26 O/U against NL East/Central)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (30-42, -2.57 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington better during the DAY (29-30, +14.84 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
(957) ST LOUIS (63-79) at (958) CINCINNATI (73-71)
Trend: St Louis better during the DAY (27-21, -0.65 units)
System Match: ST LOUIS
Trend: Cincinnati trending UNDER during the DAY (23-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cincinnati not good in divisional games (18-27, -7.70 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
(959) ARIZONA (75-68) at (960) CHICAGO-NL (76-67)
Trend: Arizona pretty good record on the ROAD (37-33, +6.89 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Chicago decent at HOME with RHP Kyle Hendricks on the mound (Won L3 games)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago trending OVER during the DAY (34-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(961) COLORADO (51-90) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (72-70)
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (32-65, -20.40 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND SECTION BELOW
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (44-37 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (33-46 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(963) SEATTLE (79-63) at (964) TAMPA BAY (87-56)
Trend: Seattle trending OVER against AL East/Central (37-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER during the DAY (21-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (49-25, +9.78 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay good against AL West/Central (36-21 record)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
(965) CHICAGO-AL (55-87) at (966) DETROIT (65-77)
Trend: Chicago bad as ML underdog (28-61, -23.15 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (33-51-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER during the DAY (27-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit good in divisional games (29-16, +16.62 units)
System Match: DETROIT
(967) BALTIMORE (90-51) at (968) BOSTON (72-70)
Trend: Baltimore good in divisional games (28-15, +16.53 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER on the ROAD (41-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston trending OVER in divisional games (24-14 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(969) KANSAS CITY (44-99) at (970) TORONTO (79-63)
Trend: LHP Cole Ragans has been dominant lately (0 ER in last 20 innings pitched, only 6 hits)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City slight OVER against AL East/West (30-22 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Toronto trending Under a couple of ways (20-36 O/U vs. AL Central/West, 24-38 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good vs. AL Central/West (37-22 record)
System Match: TORONTO
(971) OAKLAND (44-98) at (972) TEXAS (77-64)
Trend: Oakland bad during the DAY (12-46, -27.58 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD series this season is (TEX 8 – OAK 4)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER in HOME games (42-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(973) CLEVELAND (68-75) at (974) LOS ANGELES-AL (66-77)
Trend: Cleveland bad against LH starters (20-31, -20.13 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: LAA better against AL Central/East (29-25, +3.24 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA better record during the DAY (24-21, +2.24 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: INTERESTING TREND BELOW
(975) MILWAUKEE (79-62) at (976) NEW YORK-AL (70-72)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (62-40, +17.20 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: NYY better during the DAY (27-23, -1.13 units)
System Match: NY YANKEES
Trend: PITCHERS DUEL (Corbin Burnes vs. Gerrit Cole)
(977) SAN DIEGO (67-76) at (978) HOUSTON (81-62)
Trend: San Diego actually pretty good record vs AL teams (22-17)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (43-57, -35.44 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: Houston not as good at HOME (36-35, -17.96 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(979) NEW YORK-NL (64-77) at (980) MINNESOTA (75-67)
Trend: NYM not great in interleague play (18-27, -15.10 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER on the season (57-76 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota slight UNDER against NL teams (16-21 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-to-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #16: Cleveland at LA Angels, Thu 9/7-Sun 9/10
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 14-2 (87.5%, +11.84 units) in the last 16 games between Cleveland and LA Angels
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 74%
System Match: LA ANGELS
Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 9/8-Mon 9/11
Trend: Colorado is 1-15 (6.25%, -13.35 units) in their last 16 games vs. San Francisco
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -83.4%
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 9/11)