VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Thursday, August 3
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 3, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, NY METS, MINNESOTA
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Now, in games this season through Sunday 7/30 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 184-104 record, but for -55.74 units.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS, FADE LA DODGERS
Better bullpen underdog teams have been strong out of the second-half gate
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ’em). After a mediocre 12-15 (-1.26 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 245-251 for +53.21 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.7%!
System Matches: BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, NY METS
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After a 6-9 (-1.93 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 170-166 for -33.52 units, an R.O.I. of -10%. After a 3-4 result (-1.14 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 63-80 for -21.25 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.9%.
3+ Game Winning Streaks:
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE KANSAS CITY
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 7/24 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 166-127 for +11.2 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 80-52 for +22.19 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 16.8%, but it was over 50% just a few weeks ago. We’ll continue to track this hoping it turns back around soon.
2 Game Losing Streaks:
System Match: NY METS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE TEXAS, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE LA DODGERS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE NY METS, FADE OAKLAND
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE TEXAS, FADE NY YANKEES, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE LA DODGERS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, TORONTO
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 267-123 (68.5%) for +55.48 units and an R.O.I. of 14.2%!
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of 5 games or more are on a 149-72 (+19.9 units, ROI 9.0%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of 5 games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 42-36 (+7.4 units, ROI: 9.5%) in their last 78 tries to extend streaks.
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5 games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 111-78 (+16.98 units, ROI: 9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+63), SEATTLE (+21), NY METS (+37)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE (+21), HOUSTON (+29)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE-TORONTO OVER 8 (+0.5), SEATTLE-LA ANGELS OVER 8 (+0.5), NY METS-KANSAS CITY OVER 9 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: OAKLAND-LA DODGERS UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>>See situational records for each team.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (58-50) at (952) MIAMI (58-51)
Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (27-18, +4.25 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Miami not as good as ML underdog (18-28, -3.65 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami not as good in division (14-18, -3.67 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami OVER in divisional games (18-12 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(953) ARIZONA (57-52) at (954) SAN FRANCISCO (60-49)
Trend: Arizona not as good during the DAY (20-23, -5.00 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: San Francisco not as good during the DAY (23-25, -7.75 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
(955) PITTSBURGH (48-59) at (956) MILWAUKEE (58-51)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (33-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (43-33, +8.00 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee good against NL Central (22-10, +11.05 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(957) CINCINNATI (59-51) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (55-53)
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (36-28, +15.15 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending OVER at NIGHT (38-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago playing well recently (5-2 record, 8.4 RPG in L7)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
(959) CHICAGO-AL (43-66) at (960) TEXAS (62-46)
Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (15-32, -18.05 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Texas good during the DAY (27-16, +6.75 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas OVER in HOME games (32-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(961) BALTIMORE (66-42) at (962) TORONTO (60-49)
Trend: Baltimore better against AL competition (51-28, +23.14 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good as ML underdog (28-20, 14.54 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Toronto bad in division games (8-22, -23.05 units)
System Match: FADE TORONTO
Trend: Toronto bad bet as ML favorite (46-38, -12.50 units)
System Match: FADE TORONTO
Trend: Toronto UNDER in HOME games (17-32 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(963) HOUSTON (62-47) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (56-52)
Trend: Houston good on the ROAD (31-22, +6.90 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: NYY not good at NIGHT (30-39, -15.05 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
(965) SEATTLE (56-52) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (56-53)
Trend: Seattle better against AL West (15-11, +1.45 units)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle OVER in NIGHT games (38-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle not good vs Shohei Ohtani pitching (1-4 record L5 games Ohtani started)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE
Trend: LAA good against RH starters (45-35, +8.30 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA OVER in divisional games (18-9 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(967) NEW YORK-NL (50-57) at (968) KANSAS CITY (34-75)
Trend: NYM better against RH starters (39-31, -2.80 units)
System Match: NY METS
Trend: NYM bad as ML underdog (8-21, -12.60 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: Kansas City better bet during the DAY (16-27, -3.60 units)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City not good as ML favorite (2-9, -9.55 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
(969) MINNESOTA (55-54) at (970) ST LOUIS (48-61)
Trend: Minnesota not as good against NL (11-14, -8.20 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota not as good as ML favorite (43-35, -11.70 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (25-42, -27.10 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis OVER in HOME games (30-21 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(971) OAKLAND (30-79) at (972) LOS ANGELES-NL (61-45)
Trend: Oakland better bet in NIGHT games (24-39, +2.40 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: LAD better in NIGHT games (47-26, +5.85 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD OVER against LH starters (18-10 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD OVER in interleague games (23-7 O/U!)
System Match: OVER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #3: Houston at NY Yankees, Thu 8/3-Sun 8/6
Trend: NY YANKEES are 0-7 (0%, -7.9 units) in their L7 games vs. Houston
The R.O.I. on this trend is -112.9%
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY YANKEES
MOMENTUM after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 22-5 (81.5%) 15.65 units, ROI: 58.0%
Next betting opportunity: Thursday 8/3 vs. Houston
System Match: NY YANKEES