VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Thursday, September 14
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Thursday, September 14, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, TORONTO, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA, CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES (GAME 1 AND 2)
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Monday, September 11, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 145-98 record, but for -89.41 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.8%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 311-314 for +69.4 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%!
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, TAMPA BAY, CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES (GAME 1 AND 2)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 213-225 for -39.56 units, an R.O.I. of -9.0%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 83-108 for -27.01 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.1%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY METS, FADE COLORADO
3+ games – FADE TEXAS
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 217-144 for +23.71 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 6.6%.
System Match: NY YANKEES
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 9/4, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have now gone 110-74 for +19.71 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 10.7% after the past seven days.
System Match: TORONTO
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 307-279 (52.5%) for +40.52 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.8%.
System Matches: TORONTO
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match: FADE TEXAS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA, FADE MIAMI
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE NY METS, FADE COLORADO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 799-676 (54.2%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +30.78 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.1%.
System Match: BALTIMORE
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 405-332 (55%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +32.67 units, for an R.O.I. of 4.4%.
System Match: TORONTO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 143-90 in their last 233 tries (+25.38 units, ROI: 10.9%).
System Match: TEXAS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA (+27), CINCINNATI (+39)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA-NY METS OVER 7 (+0.64), SAN FRANCISCO-COLORADO OVER 10 (+1.3), TAMPA BAY-BALTIMORE OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) WASHINGTON (65-81) at (952) PITTSBURGH (68-78)
Trend: Washington better during the DAY (29-31, +13.84 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington better on the ROAD (34-38, +19.37 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Pittsburgh slight OVER against NL East/West (32-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(953) MIAMI (75-71) at (954) MILWAUKEE (81-64)
Trend: Miami trending UNDER against NL Central/West (21-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami decent during the DAY (34-28, +4.99 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Milwaukee better at HOME (42-29, +2.57 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(955) ARIZONA (76-71) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (67-78)
Trend: Arizona pretty good record on the ROAD (38-36, +4.42 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER a couple of ways (45-50 O/U against RH starters, 24-29 O/U during the DAY)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (23-43 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
(957) SAN FRANCISCO (75-71) at (958) COLORADO (53-92)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (46-38, +2.92 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (46-55 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (34-66, -18.26 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(959) TEXAS (81-64) at (960) TORONTO (80-66)
Trend: Texas not as good on the ROAD (36-34, -3.78 units)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER against RH starters (55-45 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good in AL East/Central games (36-21, +8.86 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at HOME (27-39 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good against AL Central/West (38-25, +0.68 units)
System Match: TORONTO
(961) TAMPA BAY (90-57) at (962) BALTIMORE (91-54)
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER on the ROAD (31-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good record vs RH starters (69-49)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Baltimore good at HOME (43-28, +4.87 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good at NIGHT (59-34, +22.47 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
(963) NEW YORK-AL (73-72) at (964) BOSTON (73-72) (DH Game
#1)
Trend: NYY better during the DAY (29-23, +1.17 units)
System Match: NY YANKEES
Trend: Boston is good in this series in 2023 (8-3 record)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston more OVER during the DAY (30-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(965) MINNESOTA (76-70) at (966) CHICAGO-AL (56-90)
Trend: Minnesota better record at NIGHT (46-38)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (33-52-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago bad against RH starters (42-67, -23.87 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES (MIN 6 – CHI 3)
(967) CINCINNATI (76-71) at (968) DETROIT (66-79)
Trend: Cincinnati not as good during the DAY (27-31, -3.23 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati good in interleague play (26-14, +15.43 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER during the DAY (27-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(969) NEW YORK-AL (73-72) at (970) BOSTON (73-72) (DH Game #2)
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (44-49, -11.77 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY trending UNDER at NIGHT (49-64 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Boston is good in this series in 2023 (8-3 record)
System Match: BOSTON
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Thurs 9/14-Sun 9/17
Trend: Colorado is 1-16 (5.9%, -14.35 units) in their last 17 games vs. San Francisco
The R.O.I. on this trend is -84.4%
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next couple tomorrow 9/15)