VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Thursday, September 21
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Thursday, September 21, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, DETROIT
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday, September 17, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 150-101 record, but for -91.62 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.5%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 135-52 for +22.33 units as of Monday, September 18. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season is +11.9%!
System Matches: ATLANTA
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 320-323 for +71.14 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%! Last week’s better bullpen dogs compiled a 10-9 record for +2.84 units.
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 226-235 for -32.21 units, an R.O.I. of -6.9%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 89-114 for -25.47 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.5%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON
3+ games – FADE TORONTO
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 9/11, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have now gone 112-78 for +15.75 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 8.3% after the past seven days.
System Match: NY YANKEES
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE PITTSBURGH
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE CHICAGO CUBS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 805-683 (54.2%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +29.45 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.1%.
System Match: LA DODGERS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 41-91 skid (-28.4 units, ROI: -21.5%).
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 96-94 (+16.66 units, ROI: 8.8%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: OAKLAND
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Rating projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE (+16), CLEVELAND (+24)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA-WASHINGTON OVER 9 (+0.9), BALTIMORE-CLEVELAND OVER 8.5 (+0.8), DETROIT-OAKLAND OVER 7.5 (+0.9)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) MILWAUKEE (86-66) at (902) ST LOUIS (67-85)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (66-42, +18.75 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER on the ROAD (31-43 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: St Louis better during the DAY (28-22 record)
System Match: ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight OVER at HOME (40-32 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(903) ATLANTA (97-55) at (904) WASHINGTON (68-85)
Trend: Atlanta good at NIGHT (68-35, +5.08 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER a couple of ways (66-53 O/U against RH starters, 58-42 O/U at NIGHT, 41-33 O/U on the ROAD)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (32-44, -2.57 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington slight OVER against LH starters (26-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(905) NEW YORK-NL (71-81) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (83-69)
Trend: NYM awful against LH starters (15-32, -27.15 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM more UNDER in division (16-25 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: HOME team is 5-1 in season series
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia pretty good vs LH starters (28-20, +3.29 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
(907) PITTSBURGH (71-81) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (79-73)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER at NIGHT (54-35 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago dominating season series (10-2 record)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago good with RHP Kyle Hendricks at HOME (won L4 games)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago more OVER in divisional games (26-19 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(909) SAN FRANCISCO (76-76) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (93-58)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (46-41 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (70-38, +11.88 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: HOME team is 1-5 in the season series
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (24-22, -10.57 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
(911) LOS ANGELES-AL (69-83) at (912) TAMPA BAY (93-60)
Trend: LAA decent during the DAY (25-23, +1.66 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA more OVER on the ROAD (40-32 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (51-26, +9.28 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER a couple of ways (47-29 O/U at HOME, 36-26 O/U against AL West/Central, 35-26 O/U during the DAY)
System Match: OVER
(913) TORONTO (85-67) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (76-76)
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at NIGHT (34-49 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: ROAD team is 7-2 in this season series
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: NYY slight OVER in divisional games (26-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (47-51, -10.97 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(915) BALTIMORE (95-57) at (916) CLEVELAND (72-81)
Trend: Baltimore good on the ROAD (50-27, +30.28 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good against AL Central/West (41-19, +19.48 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER on the ROAD (44-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER a couple of ways (40-55 O/U at NIGHT, 40-57 O/U against RH starters)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland better at HOME (39-36 record)
System Match: CLEVELAND
(917) DETROIT (71-81) at (918) OAKLAND (46-106)
Trend: Detroit more UNDER against RH starters (49-64 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit not as good against AL West/East (20-40 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Trend: Oakland slightly better against LH starters (19-25, +3.20 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland heavy OVER against AL Central/East (36-17 O/U!)
System Match: OVER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Tue 9/19-Thu 9/21
Trend: Pittsburgh is 3-17 (15%, -12.36 units) in their L20 games at Chicago Cubs
The R.O.I. on this trend is -61.8%
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH
Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Tue 9/19-Thu 9/21
Trend: FAVORITES are just 13-26 (33%, -23.78 units) in the last 39 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
The R.O.I. on this trend is -61%
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATLANTA
MOMENTUM after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 16-12 (57.1%) 3.9 units, ROI: 20.7%
Next betting opportunity: Thursday 9/21 at Washington
System Matches: ATLANTA