VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Tuesday, August 15
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 15, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA, DETROIT, TEXAS, SEATTLE, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, BOSTON, TORONTO, CHICAGO CUBS, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
In games this season through Monday 8/14 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 214-121 record, but for -63.82 units. This is an R.O.I. of -19.1%! In my opinion, bullpens prove to be the difference in games that are priced more competitively.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE ATLANTA, FADE ST LOUIS
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 49-54 for -71.94 units! This angle was 3-5 last week and lost -7.12 units! This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -69.8%!
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a rare off week of 5-9 (-2.84 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 269-269 for +64.52 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 12%!
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, TORONTO, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 182-183 for -35.48 units, an R.O.I. of -9.7%. After a 0-3 result (-3.18 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-87 for -20.69 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -13.3%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE NY METS, FADE MINNESOTA
3+ games – FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE MIAMI, FADE WASHINGTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 183-120 for +26.97 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 8.9%.
System Matches: LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since August 7, when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 184-137 for +12.86 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a big 6-1 week and have now gone 90-57 for +23.23 units. The R.O.I. for the season jumped back up to 15.8% after that surge this past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON
3-game – SEATTLE, NY YANKEES
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 302-269 (52.9%) for +47.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.3%.
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE TEXAS, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE TORONTO, FADE CLEVELAND
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE PHILADELPHIA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE NY METS, FADE ATLANTA, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE TEXAS, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE COLORADO, FADE LA DODGERS, FADE WASHINGTON, FADE TORONTO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 784-656 (54.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.74 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 232-182 (56.2%) for +50.2 units and an R.O.I. of 12.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 155-73 (+24.28 units, ROI: 10.6%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match: LA DODGERS
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 132-82 in their last 214 tries (+26.97 units, ROI: 12.6%).
System Match: LA DODGERS
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 13-39 (-14.5 units, ROI: -27.9%) in their last 52 tries.
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinene Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE (+51), DETROIT (+25), CINCINNATI (+16), WASHINGTON (+24), OAKLAND (+20)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE (+59), HOUSTON (+31), CHICAGO CUBS (+23)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE-KANSAS CITY OVER 9 (+0.7), PHILADELPHIA-TORONTO OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY YANKEES-ATLANTA UNDER 10.5 (-0.7), TAMPA BAY-SAN FRANCISCO UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for each team.
(951) PITTSBURGH (53-66) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (54-65)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (40-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh solid bet vs NL West/East (25-24, +9.09 units)
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh good OVER team as ML underdog (47-36-4, +7.40 units)
System Match: OVER
Trend: NYM trending UNDER as ML favorite (32-42-3 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (12-26, -23.15 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM not good against NL Central/West (23-28, -14.35 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM UNDER at HOME (18-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(953) ARIZONA (59-60) at (954) COLORADO (46-73)
Trend: Arizona good record against Colorado this year (6-2)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER (22-34 O/U as ML favorite, 29-39 O/U in NIGHT games)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado bad against NL West (8-25, -12.15 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado better against LH starters (18-21, +4.85 units)
System Match: COLORADO
(955) MILWAUKEE (65-54) at (956) LOS ANGELES-NL (71-46)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (49-35, +10.12 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER as ML underdog (17-30-1 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (54-27, +12.90 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good against RH starters (52-28, +12.20 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(957) DETROIT (53-65) at (958) MINNESOTA (62-58)
Trend: Detroit good in division (21-13, +11.17 units)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: Detroit trending OVER in NIGHT games (34-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Minnesota not good bet as ML favorite (49-38, -10.10 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
(959) LOS ANGELES-AL (59-61) at (960) TEXAS (71-48)
Trend: LAA trending OVER in divisional games (22-12 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA trending OVER as ML underdog (29-18-6 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA not as good against LH starters (12-18, -12.95 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: Texas good as ML favorite (52-28, +8.50 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER in HOME games (34-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(961) SEATTLE (63-55) at (962) KANSAS CITY (39-81)
Trend: Seattle trending OVER in multiple ways (29-20 O/U in AL East/Central games, 41-35 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle not great bet as ML favorite (47-40, -11.70 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (21-53, -22.07 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City not good against AL East/West (11-29, -13.12 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
(963) CLEVELAND (57-62) at (964) CINCINNATI (62-58)
Trend: Cleveland trends UNDER as ML favorite (23-39-2 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cincinnati good against AL teams (17-10, +8.90 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending OVER in multiple ways (20-15 O/U against LH starters, 40-29 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
(965) HOUSTON (68-52) at (966) MIAMI (63-57)
Trend: Houston good on the ROAD (35-26, +6.01 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Miami good against AL teams (26-16, +12.58 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami not as good as ML underdog (21-32, -4.40 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami non-divisional games trending UNDER (35-50 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(967) BOSTON (62-56) at (968) WASHINGTON (53-66)
Trend: Boston not as good against NL teams (18-22, -7.30 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (27-41, -0.86 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (25-34, -1.81 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(969) PHILADELPHIA (65-54) at (970) TORONTO (66-54)
Trend: Philadelphia better against AL teams (25-16, +6.17 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (35-35, -10.76 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia trending UNDER against AL (16-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good against NL teams (23-12, +8.28 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto pretty good as ML underdog (13-10, +4.66 units, 15-8 O/U)
System Match: TORONTO, OVER
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER in other ways (14-19 O/U against NL, 19-34 O/U at HOME, 22-42 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: UNDER
(971) NEW YORK-AL (60-59) at (972) ATLANTA (76-42)
Trend: NYY not good at NIGHT (33-43, -16.72 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY trending UNDER at NIGHT (31-43 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Atlanta not as good against AL teams (24-20, -9.18 units)
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER multiple ways (35-22 O/U at HOME, 44-31 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
(973) OAKLAND (33-86) at (974) ST LOUIS (53-66)
Trend: Oakland bad as ML underdog (33-82, -26.35 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland decent bet at NIGHT (24-45, -4.62 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: St Louis trending OVER at HOME (32-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (30-46, -26.17 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis worst in MLB as ML favorite (33-43, -30.67 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
(975) CHICAGO-AL (47-72) at (976) CHICAGO-NL (61-57)
Trend: White Sox are 7-1 in last 8 games vs Cubs at Wrigley Field
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: White Sox trending UNDER as ML underdog (26-44-4 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cubs trending OVER in multiple ways (34-22 O/U at HOME, 24-13 O/U against AL teams, 43-35 O/U against RH starters)
System Match: OVER
(977) BALTIMORE (74-45) at (978) SAN DIEGO (56-63)
Trend: Baltimore best in MLB as ML underdog (31-22, +16.60 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: San Diego pretty good against AL teams (19-14 record)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER against AL (9-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (34-46, -31.09 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
(979) TAMPA BAY (72-49) at (980) SAN FRANCISCO (63-56)
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on the ROAD (24-30 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Francisco pretty good as ML underdog (20-18, +6.20 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (38-29, +4.52 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (26-39 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #12: Pittsburgh at NY Mets, Mon 8/14-Wed 8/16
Trend: FAVORITES are 10-0 (100%, +10 units) in the last 10 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
The R.O.I. on this trend is 100%.
System Match: NY METS
Series #13: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers, Tue 8/15-Thu 8/17
Trend: FAVORITES are 13-1 (92.9%, +10.4 units) in the last 14 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
The R.O.I. on this trend is 74.3%.
System Match: LA DODGERS
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CINCINNATI
MOMENTUM after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 13-9 (59.1%) 5.02 units, ROI: 22.8%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/15 vs. Cleveland
System Match: CINCINNATI