VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Tuesday, August 22.
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 22, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, SAN DIEGO, TORONTO, SEATTLE, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO CUBS, NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI, TEXAS
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%.
In games this season through Monday 8/21 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 119-85 record, but for -84.07 units. This is an R.O.I. of -41.2%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE LA DODGERS
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are 110-41 for +24.45 units as of Monday 8/21. This comes after a 6-0 performance last week. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc., and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, etc., enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +16.2%!
System Matches: TAMPA BAY
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 53-55 for -69.84 units! However, this angle was 5-1 last week and won 3.1 units, a rare winning week. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -64.7%!
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ’em’). After a rare off week of 7-14 (-5.14 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 276-283 for +59.38 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.6%!
System Matches: TORONTO, MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI, TEXAS
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After a 11-10 (+2.97 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 193-193 for -32.51 units, an R.O.I. of -8.4%. After a 4-6 result (-0.75 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 73-93 for -21.44 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.9%.
System Matches: 3-game – FADE ARIZONA, FADE BALTIMORE
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the two-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 189-125 for +24.64 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 7.8%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, -3.33 units on a 5-5 performance.
System Matches: SEATTLE, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/14 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 194-148 for +9.44 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a negative 4-6 week and have now gone 94-63 for +20.53 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 13.1% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – CINCINNATI, ATLANTA
3+ games – TEXAS, NY YANKEES, KANSAS CITY
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 304-269 (53.1%) for +49.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.6%.
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1430-1335 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -167.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE, FADE TORONTO, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE HOUSTON, FADE NY METS, FADE SEATTLE
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1679 (43.3%) for -170.41 units and an R.O.I. of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS, FADE MIAMI, FADE MINNESOTA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE DETROIT, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE HOUSTON, FADE OAKLAND, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE NY YANKEES, FADE MILWAUKEE
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 787-661 (54.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +39.08 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.7%.
System Match: CLEVELAND
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 267-123 (68.5%) for +55.48 units and an R.O.I. of 14.2%!
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 235-184 (56.1%) for +51.25 units and an R.O.I. of 12.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match: LA ANGELS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 13-15 (+6.82 units, ROI: 24.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 51-114 (-47.75 units, ROI: -28.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 64-47 outright (+10.86 units, ROI: 9.8%).
System Match: TEXAS
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 121-100 run (+44.98 units, ROI: 20.4%).
System Matches: TEXAS
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 136-84 in their last 220 tries (+27.11 units, ROI: 12.3%).
System Match: SEATTLE
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO (+42), WASHINGTON (+20)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+21), HOUSTON (+46), MILWAUKEE (+27)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TORONTO-BALTIMORE OVER 8 (+0.8), SEATTLE-CHICAGO WHITE SOX OVER 8.5 (+0.8), COLORADO-TAMPA BAY OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS-PITTSBURGH UNDER 10 (-0.8), NY METS-ATLANTA UNDER 10.5 (-0.8)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily. >> See situational records of each team.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (65-60) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (68-57)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (39-32, +2.52 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (28-41 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia not as good bet at NIGHT (37-38, -13.79 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia slight UNDER at NIGHT (30-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(903) ST LOUIS (55-71) at (904) PITTSBURGH (56-69)
Trend: St Louis not good at NIGHT (31-51, -31.64 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight UNDER on the ROAD (26-32 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Pittsburgh 4-0 at HOME vs St Louis this season
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER other ways too (36-22 O/U at HOME, 43-27 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
(905) NEW YORK-NL (59-67) at (906) ATLANTA (80-44)
Trend: NYM bad as ML underdog (12-29, -15.35 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: Atlanta good against NYM this season (8-3 overall, 3-1 at HOME)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER multiple ways (46-34 O/U at NIGHT, 37-26 O/U at HOME)
System Match: OVER
(907) MIAMI (64-62) at (908) SAN DIEGO (60-66)
Trend: Miami trending UNDER in NL Central/West matchups (17-32 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami not great against NL competition (38-44, -11.40 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: San Diego bad against NL East/Central (22-28, -18.40 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego better record against LH starters (23-17, -0.90 units)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
(909) TORONTO (69-56) at (910) BALTIMORE (77-47)
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER in NIGHT games (23-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Baltimore good against Toronto this season (8-2 record)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER a couple ways (21-16 O/U in divisional play, 24-18 O/U against LH starters)
System Match: OVER
(911) SEATTLE (70-55) at (912) CHICAGO-AL (49-76)
Trend: Seattle trending OVER in NIGHT games (45-36 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle hot right now (7-game winning streak)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (17-35, -18.64 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago bad as ML underdog (25-53, -19.70 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (28-46-4 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(913) BOSTON (66-59) at (914) HOUSTON (71-55)
Trend: Boston good in AL games (47-35, +10.81 units)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Houston not as good bet at HOME (34-29, -10.80 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(915) KANSAS CITY (40-87) at (916) OAKLAND (35-90)
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (22-56, -23.07 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City horrible against AL West/East (11-33, -17.12 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Oakland trending OVER multiple ways (31-13 O/U against AL Central/East, 22-14 O/U vs LH starters)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland slightly better bet in NIGHT games (26-48, -5.17 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
(917) COLORADO (48-76) at (918) TAMPA BAY (75-51)
Trend: Colorado not good against RH starters (30-54, -13.40 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado in the positive against AL teams (15-19, +1.85 units)
System Match: COLORADO
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (40-22, +4.35 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER against NL teams (17-21 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (16-7, +6.60 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
(919) CHICAGO-NL (65-59) at (920) DETROIT (57-68)
Trend: Cubs trending OVER against AL teams (26-17 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit not great as HOME ML underdog (19-29 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Trend: Detroit slight OVER in multiple ways (35-27 O/U at NIGHT, 33-25 O/U at HOME, 18-9 O/U against LH starters)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit not good against LH starters (10-19, -7.20 units)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
(921) WASHINGTON (57-68) at (922) NEW YORK-AL (60-64)
Trend: Washington good bet on the ROAD (28-32, +15.65 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington slight OVER against LH starters (24-19 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: NYY not good in NIGHT games (33-46, -19.72 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
(923) LOS ANGELES-NL (76-47) at (924) CLEVELAND (59-66)
Trend: LAD good in NIGHT games (58-28, +15.42 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good against RH starters (55-29, +13.72 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD trending OVER in interleague games (24-7 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cleveland bad offense recently (0-6 O/U in L6 games)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland decent as HOME ML underdog (11-9 record)
System Match: CLEVELAND
(925) MINNESOTA (65-60) at (926) MILWAUKEE (68-57)
Trend: Minnesota trending UNDER a couple ways (13-20 O/U against NL teams, 11-17 O/U against LH starters)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota 2-0 record against Milwaukee this season
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (51-37, +10.87 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee good record against AL teams (24-17, +2.75 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER a couple ways (29-41 O/U at NIGHT, 17-22 O/U against AL teams)
System Match: UNDER
(927) CINCINNATI (64-61) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (61-64)
Trend: Cincinnati good against AL teams (19-13, +7.96 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (41-33, +14.61 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: LAA not great bet against NL teams (16-21, -10.20 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA slight UNDER against NL teams (15-20 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(929) TEXAS (72-53) at (930) ARIZONA (65-61)
Trend: Texas trending UNDER in ROAD games (24-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER in AL games (10-21 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona good at HOME this season with RHP Zac Gallen starting (10-2 record)
System Match: ARIZONA
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 8/28)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY YANKEES
LETDOWN after series vs. BOSTON: 13-13 (50.0%) -10.29 units, ROI: -39.6%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/22 vs. Washington
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES