VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, September 20
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Wednesday, September 20, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday, September 17, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 150-101 record, but for -91.62 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.5%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE LA DODGERS
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 135-52 for +22.33 units as of Monday, September 18. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season is +11.9%!
System Match: SEATTLE
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 71-67 for -79.03 units! This angle was 4-3 last week and again lost –2.84 units. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -57.3%!
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 320-323 for +71.14 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%! Last week’s better bullpen dogs compiled a 10-9 record for +2.84 units.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 226-235 for -32.21 units, an R.O.I. of -6.9%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 89-114 for -25.47 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.5%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE KANSAS CITY
3+ games – FADE ARIZONA, FADE TORONTO
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 221-152 for +15.57 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 4.2%.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE, LA DODGERS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 308-282 (52.2%) for +38.94 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.6%.
System Matches: CINCINNATI
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE BALTIMORE
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE LA ANGELS, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE COLORADO, FADE DETROIT
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE ATLANTA, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE TEXAS, FADE HOUSTON, FADE ARIZONA
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 805-682 (54.2%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +30.80 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.1%.
System Match: CINCINNATI
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 274-128 (68.2%) for +51.96 units and an R.O.I. of 12.9%!
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 162-79 (+21.07 units, ROI: 8.7%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 44-39 (+7.4 units, ROI: 8.9%) in their last 83 tries to extend streaks.
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 51-52 (-22.22 units, ROI: -21.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO (+30), PITTSBURGH (+19), DETROIT (+21)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI (+19), TAMPA BAY (+39), WASHINGTON (+30)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND-KANSAS CITY OVER 8.5 (+0.82), SEATTLE-OAKLAND OVER 8 (+0.56), TORONTO-NY YANKEES OVER 7.5 (+0.74)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (82-69) at (952) ATLANTA (97-54)
Trend: Philadelphia better during the DAY (35-24, +3.78 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Atlanta winning season series (8-4 record)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER a couple of ways (25-17 O/U in division, 43-30 O/U at HOME)
System Match: OVER
(953) SAN FRANCISCO (76-75) at (954) ARIZONA (80-72)
Trend: San Francisco not as good on the ROAD (33-41, -11.55 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (36-49 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona better at HOME (42-35, +2.89 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona more UNDER at HOME (31-41 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(955) COLORADO (56-95) at (956) SAN DIEGO (74-78)
Trend: Colorado trending UNDER on the ROAD (32-43 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (36-67, -16.01 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: San Diego not as good against RH starters (48-59, -31.98 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER a couple of ways (29-42 O/U at HOME, 21-28 O/U during the DAY)
System Match: UNDER
(957) NEW YORK-NL (70-81) at (958) MIAMI (79-73)
Trend: NYM not great on the ROAD (31-45, -20.96 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM slight UNDER a couple of ways (15-25 O/U in division, 36-57 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami better at HOME (44-33, +1.68 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami slight OVER against RH starters (58-53 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(959) PITTSBURGH (70-81) at (960) CHICAGO-NL (79-72)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER against LH starters (28-18 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago dominating season series (10-1 record)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago good with LHP Justin Steele starting (13-3 record in L16)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago more OVER in divisional games (25-19 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(961) MILWAUKEE (85-66) at (962) ST LOUIS (67-84)
Trend: Milwaukee not as good against LH starters (19-24, -12.23 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER on the ROAD (30-43 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (39-62, -31.07 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight OVER at HOME (39-32 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(963) BOSTON (75-77) at (964) TEXAS (83-68)
Trend: Boston pretty good against AL West/Central (33-27 record)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston trending OVER against AL West/Central (34-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas better during the DAY (32-23, +1.11 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas good against AL East/Central (38-25, +5.94 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER at HOME (44-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(965) CLEVELAND (72-80) at (966) KANSAS CITY (50-102)
Trend: Cleveland heavy UNDER in divisional games (13-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Kansas City bad vs. RH starters (38-76, -24.17 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City trending UNDER in DAY games (23-33 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(967) BALTIMORE (95-56) at (968) HOUSTON (84-68)
Trend: Baltimore good on the ROAD (50-26, +31.48 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER against AL West/Central (33-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston not as good bet at HOME (38-39, -26.04 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Trend: Houston decent during the DAY (28-21, +2.25 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
(969) SEATTLE (83-68) at (970) OAKLAND (46-105)
Trend: Seattle dominates season series (11-1 record, 5-0 on the ROAD)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle not great with RHP George Kirby recently (lost L4 games)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE
Trend: Oakland trending UNDER in division (19-29 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Oakland bad against RH starters (27-80, -33.10 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (68-83) at (972) TAMPA BAY (93-59)
Trend: LAA not as good at NIGHT (43-60, -25.39 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA more OVER on the ROAD (39-32 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (22-8, +11.40 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER a couple of ways (46-29 O/U at HOME, 35-26 O/U against AL West/Central)
System Match: OVER
(973) TORONTO (84-67) at (974) NEW YORK-AL (76-75)
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at NIGHT (34-49 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: ROAD team is 6-2 in this season series
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: NYY trending UNDER against RH starters (51-66 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (47-50, -9.95 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(975) MINNESOTA (80-72) at (976) CINCINNATI (79-74)
Trend: Minnesota slight UNDER in interleague play (17-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota not as good during the DAY (31-32, -11.02 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Cincinnati very good in interleague play (27-16, +14.73 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending UNDER a couple of ways (32-44 O/U at HOME, 48-58 O/U vs RH starters, 25-35 O/U during the DAY)
System Match: UNDER
(977) CHICAGO-AL (58-94) at (978) WASHINGTON (67-85)
Trend: Chicago bad in interleague play (14-25, -8.56 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (36-54-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (31-44, -3.57 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington better bet during the DAY (30-32, +15.24 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
(979) DETROIT (70-81) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (93-57)
Trend: Detroit heavy OVER against interleague teams (29-14 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit slightly better on the ROAD (38-38, +12.18 units)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: LAD heavy OVER against AL teams (31-11 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD good at HOME (50-26, +8.45 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Tue 9/19-Thu 9/21
Trend: Pittsburgh is 2-17 (10.5%, -14.06 units) in their last 19 games at Chicago Cubs
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -74%
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Tue 9/19-Thu 9/21
Trend: FAVORITES are just 12-26 (31.6%, -24.78 units) in the last 38 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -65.2%
System Match: FADE TORONTO (favorite as of 9:30 AM CT)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 9/21)